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date: 01 April 2023

Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Eventslocked

Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Eventslocked

  • Wansuo DuanWansuo DuanChinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics
  •  and Mu MuMu MuChinese Academy of Sciences


This article retrospects the studies of the predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events within the framework of error growth dynamics and reviews the results of previous studies. It mainly covers (a) the advances in methods for studying ENSO predictability, especially those of optimal methods associated with initial errors and model errors; and (b) the applications of these optimal methods in the studies of “spring predictability barrier” (SPB), optimal precursors for ENSO events (or the source of ENSO predictability) and target observations for ENSO predictions. In this context, some of major frontiers and challenges remaining in ENSO predictability are addressed.


  • Climate Systems and Climate Dynamics

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