Climate Change and Sustainability in Amazonia
Climate Change and Sustainability in Amazonia
- Carlos A. Nobre, Carlos A. NobreScience Panel for the Amazon Co-chair São José dos Campos 12245010 Brazil
- Marielos Peña-Claros, Marielos Peña-ClarosScience Panel for the Amazon Co-chair São José dos Campos 12245010 Brazil
- Julia Arieira, Julia ArieiraScience Panel for the Amazon Scientific-Technical Secretariat São José dos Campos 12242-080 Brazil
- Diego Oliveira BrandãoDiego Oliveira BrandãoScience Panel for the Amazon Scientific-Technical Secretariat São José dos Campos 12242-080 Brazil
- , and Federico Viscarra RiverosFederico Viscarra RiverosScience Panel for the Amazon Scientific-Technical Secretariat São José dos Campos 12242-080 Brazil
Summary
Over the past two decades, extreme hydroclimatic events—such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods—have intensified and become more frequent in Amazonia. These changes, driven by land use and climate shifts, are pushing the region toward irreversible ecosystem degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased human vulnerability. This threatens the Amazon’s ability to sustain itself and continue providing essential services like climate regulation, food, and water security both within and beyond the region. Nature-based solutions, which leverage natural processes, offer a way to enhance forest resilience and improve the wellbeing of Indigenous and local populations. Achieving this requires a shift from exploitative economic models to an innovative socio-bioeconomy that prioritizes conservation and restoration, strengthens governance, empowers Indigenous knowledge, and fosters education, science, and technology. With Amazonia nearing critical ecological and social tipping points, urgent action is crucial for securing a sustainable future.
Keywords
Subjects
- Climate Systems and Climate Dynamics
- Development and Sustainability
Introduction
Amazonia rainforest holds the greatest tropical forests in the world (~7 million km2), exerting significant influence on global atmospheric dynamics and standing as a vital part of the planet’s ecosystem. It is also the world’s greatest carbon stock, contains a high biodiversity that flourished over tens of millions of years of evolution, and is home to much cultural diversity. The value of Amazonia lies in its key, cross-scale regulatory ecosystem functions, supporting climate, hydrology, and biodiversity, forming the basis of water, energy, food, and income security.
An accelerated path to destruction pushes Amazonia toward an irreversible tipping point with consequences for the whole world. Over the past decades, numerous incidents of extreme weather conditions, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and other catastrophic socioenvironmental disasters, have occurred. These events have caused the loss of thousands of lives, indicating that environmental changes are not happening gradually but rather in sudden leaps, emphasizing the need for preventive measures. Deforestation and forest degradation, which have resulted in the loss of approximately 2 million km2 of Amazonian forests, have had a significant negative impact on the critical services provided by these forests. The roots of this destruction lie in an economic model based on external economic demands and decision-making that conflicts with society’s interests, resulting in the exploitation of natural assets, injustices, and inequalities for the local population. Much scientific evidence and predictions have pointed to the risks of Amazonia rainforest’s socioecological tipping points (Nobre et al., 2021).
Climate change, warfare, and the unsustainable use of natural resources have historically led human societies to collapse, often due to misguided decisions despite warning signs of impending crises (Diamond et al., 2005). In this article, the authors advocate implementing nature-based solutions in Amazonia to address the intertwined challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and social injustices. These solutions offer a crucial pathway to simultaneously mitigate and adapt to the impacts of global warming while supporting livelihoods and fostering sustainable development (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2023).
This synthesis relies mostly on the work of hundreds of scientists who are part of the Science Panel for the Amazon, working worldwide to compile the most standing scientific knowledge on Amazonia (Nobre et al., 2021).
Climate Change Dynamics in Amazonia: How Has the Climate and Biodiversity Evolved Over Time
Amazonia: A Primary Reservoir of Neotropical Biodiversity
The current configuration and functioning of the Amazonia basin reflect its geological history over tens of millions of years resulting in a remarkable geodiversity, which set the stage for the evolution of the most species-rich biota on earth (13% of global diversity of vertebrate and vascular plant species; Val et al., 2021). Over the past 66 one-million years (Mya; Cenozoic era), tectonic activities, climate fluctuations, and atmospheric carbon concentrations have interacted to create the warm, humid climate crucial for maintaining Amazonian forests, influencing forest productivity and biodiversity (Malhi et al., 2021). The geological transformations across this era have created both geographic barriers and new connections, profoundly influencing dispersal, gene flow, and biotic diversification within Amazonia. This has offered numerous opportunities for colonization, adaptation, and speciation (Guayasamin et al., 2021; Val et al., 2021), making Amazonia the primary source of biodiversity lineages in the neotropics (Antonelli et al., 2018; Zapata-Ríos et al., 2021).
The Remarkable Onset of Andean Uplift
The onset of Andean uplift around 40 ± 10 Mya marked a significant turning point in the evolution of Amazonia landscape. This geological event, driven by geodynamic forces, reshaped the river drainage patterns and regional climate dynamics, playing a pivotal role in species evolution (Hoorn et al., 2010). As the Andes uplifted, atmospheric patterns underwent significant changes, leading to the formation of the Andean orographic barrier. This barrier gradually obstructed atmospheric circulation, resulting in heightened orographic rainfall in the Andean foothills. This alteration fundamentally transformed the climatic regime across South America, impacting not only the Amazonia region but also the entire continent (Hoorn et al., 2010). Consequently, the Andean foothills experienced increased precipitation, while certain parts of eastern Amazonia became drier (Ehlers & Poulsen, 2009).
During the Neogene uplift of the Northern Andes, approximately 2.6 Mya, much of the present biota was formed, a process strongly influenced by dynamic climate history and tectonism in both terrestrial and marine realms (Guayasamin et al., 2021; Hoorn et al., 2010). This period witnessed significant geological and environmental changes, with the western margin of Amazonia transitioning from a marine seaway to deltaic and lacustrine settings, giving rise to an immense megawetland known as the Pebas system, covering approximately 1 million km2 (Hoorn et al., 2010; Val et al., 2021). Around 7 Mya, further Andean uplift led to the complete drainage of the megawetland, resulting in widespread expansion of river terrace systems and the expansion of terra firme forests (Guayasamin et al., 2021). The global climate change from warm to cool states during the Middle Miocene transition (approximately 14 Mya) led to a global sea level fall, increased aridity in middle latitude regions, and glacier formation in the high Andes. These changes may have influenced the shift from the Pebas wetland system to alluvial megafans and the Acre fluvial system ca. 10 Mya (Flower & Kennett, 1994; Val et al., 2021; Westerhold et al., 2020). The interplay between the Andes and lowland Amazonia has profoundly shaped the region’s hydroclimatic diversity and soil composition, coevolving with its exceptional biodiversity.
The Quaternary Period: A New Phase of Climate Change
During the Quaternary period, approximately 2.6 Mya, a new phase of climate change swept across the globe that had profound impacts (Hoorn et al., 2010; Val et al., 2021). This period saw alterations in the intensity and mean latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, atmospheric convective systems, trade winds, and precipitation patterns throughout the region. Atmospheric changes significantly impacted carbon stocks and ecosystem productivity. Over time, there have been alternating periods of cooler climates with low atmospheric CO2 levels (around 180 ppm) and high climate variability. This phase was intermittently interrupted by shorter spans (approximately 10,000 years) of warmer and wetter conditions, higher CO2 levels (around 280 ppm), and less climate variability, with the Holocene epoch serving as a notable example (Malhi et al., 2021).
The last two glacial-interglacial cycles, spanning around 250,000 years, brought significant changes in precipitation patterns to Amazonia, as evidenced by the South American precipitation dipole phenomenon (Cheng et al., 2013). Eastern Amazonia experienced a shift toward a more seasonal climate, characterized by dry-wet cycles, while precipitation variability in western Amazonia remained relatively stable. Despite drier conditions (45 ± 10% reduction; Van Der Hammen & Hooghiemstra, 2000) during the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago [Kya]) and the mid-Holocene (around 6 Kya) leading to changes in species distribution and forest cover, forests did not undergo widespread dieback (Guayasamin et al., 2021; Hoorn et al., 2010; Val et al., 2021). On the other hand, influenced by drier climatic conditions and human-induced fires, the savanna expanded at the borders of southern and northeastern Amazonia (Flores et al., 2024) achieving its maximum extension during Upper Pleniglacial (32–15 Kya; Latrubesse, 2000). In the Holocene period (<10 Kya), climate change induced by sea surface temperature also caused the expansion of savannas and seasonal forests in eastern Amazonia (Maksic et al., 2018).
Records and models indicate that Pleistocene glacial cycles affected regions of Amazonia differently, with eastern Amazonia experiencing significant drying compared to only modest increases in precipitation in western Amazonia (Val et al., 2021). Consequently, while more stable climatic conditions may have facilitated speciation in western Amazonia, the larger hydroclimate fluctuations in eastern Amazonia likely led to a net loss rather than a gain in biodiversity (Cheng et al., 2013). During glacial episodes, drier climatic conditions were marked by lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which may have reduced water-use efficiency in trees. On the other hand, cooler temperatures likely resulted in decreased water demand by trees, thereby lowering evapotranspiration rates and allowing forests to persist (Flores et al., 2024; Malhi et al., 2021). Over glacial-interglacial cycles, temperature ranges varied across Amazonia, with the high Andes experiencing greater fluctuations (5–10°C) than Amazonia lowlands (2–5°C). These climatic shifts were also associated with changes in erosion rates and sediment transport, contributing to the formation of the modern landscapes in Amazonia (Val et al., 2021).
The Contemporary Amazonia Rainforest
All these events have given rise to the contemporary Amazonia: A diverse mosaic of more than 50 types of ecosystems, including forests, savannas, rivers, lakes, and swamps distributed on the uplands (the Altiplano and the Andean montane regions) and lowlands (Moraes et al., 2021; Figure 1). Embedded within these basin-wide patterns are intricate regional and landscape-scale geomorphological, altitudinal, fluvial, edaphic, and hydrological variations that contribute to the remarkable biological richness and diversity of Amazonian ecosystems. Amazonia lowland forest (<500 m) covers ~5.7 million km2 representing a mixture of terrestrial, aquatic, and wetland habitats, crucial for connecting ecosystems by transporting species, sediments, nutrients, and minerals. Most biodiversity lies on this lowland region, while higher endemism is found in the uplands (Guayasamin et al., 2021). Amazonia lowland is home to an estimated 16,000 tree species and houses an astonishing 392 billion individual trees (>10 cm dbh). This vast forest cover accounts for approximately 13% of all trees on earth (Crowther et al., 2015; Moraes et al., 2021; Ter Steege et al., 2013). Together, vascular plants (50,000 species) and vertebrates, including fish (2,406 spp.), amphibians (427 spp.), reptiles (371 spp.), birds (1,300 spp.), and mammals (425 spp.), equals 13% of all global biodiversity. Amazonia has a vast, undiscovered species richness, particularly among taxa such as plants, amphibians, insects, fungi, and microorganisms (including pathogens and parasites). This knowledge is crucial for understanding and maintaining ecosystem stability, function, and resilience (Zapata-Ríos et al., 2021).

Figure 1. Ecosystem diversity in Amazonia Basin. The diverse mosaic of more than 50 types of ecosystems, including forests, savannas, rivers, lakes, and swamps distributed from the Andes foothills to the Amazonia lowland.
The Critical Function of Amazonian Forests in Regulating the Regional and Global Climate Systems
The climate regulation services carried out by Amazonian forests take place through different biophysical (Costa, Borma, Espinoza, et al., 2021) and biochemical processes (Malhi et al., 2021): (a) carbon sequestration and storage in the biomass of plants and soil; (b) maintenance and regulation of local and regional rainfall, carried out through water recycling, and its transport to other parts of South America; and (c) regulation of local and regional warming via cooling of the land’s surface provided by the high flow of latent heat (evapotranspiration) released by the forest during gas exchange. These services provided by the forest make the regional climate highly sensitive to the presence of the forest (Nobre et al., 1991).
Amazonian Forests Work in Carbon Cycle Regulation
Amazonian forests regulate carbon cycle, helping to imprison carbon in plant biomass and reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the main driver of global warming (Eyring et al., 2023). It is estimated that approximately half of all carbon stored by world’s tropical forests are concentrated in Amazonia (Saatchi et al., 2011). Through photosynthesis, primary and secondary Amazonian forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, taking in up to 0.7 Gt of CO2 per year (Gatti et al., 2023) and store around 90 Gt C aboveground (Malhi et al., 2021). Carbon stored in soils is in the same order as the aboveground carbon, and its recycling is mediated by a microbial community of decomposers (e.g., bacteria, fungi) in association with the microclimatic conditions of the forest (Luizão et al., 2007; Malhi et al., 2021). In aquatic ecosystems, the carbon balance nears zero, with an annual input of carbon estimated to be in the same order as CO2 degassed (Gatti, Melack, et al., 2021).
Historical data from in-situ inventories indicate that mature terra-firme Amazonian forests work as a carbon sink, with episodic (drought years) and long-term (along the last four decades) decreasing trend (Malhi et al., 2021; Phillips et al., 2009). Considering its contribution to climate change mitigation, Amazonian forests’ carbon uptake contributes to approximately 14% of global emissions from land-use change (i.e., 5 Gt CO2 per year), emphasizing the importance of maintaining this carbon sink to meet the Paris Agreement goals (Gatti et al., 2023). A wide range of factors related to soil fertility and structure, climate, forest disturbance, species composition, and functional traits are influential in determining how captured carbon is allocated for biomass production and how long it will remain in the biomass pool (Moraes et al., 2021). High temperature maximum and seasonal water deficits play a limiting effect on tree productivity (Sullivan et al., 2020) and rates of decomposition of dead organic material in soil (Moraes et al., 2021). Litter decomposition rates at the Andes-Amazonia interface is highly explained by temperature gradients (Salinas et al., 2011).
Amazonian Forests as Crucial Regulators of Atmospheric Moisture
Through a similar route of gas exchange, Amazonian forests play a crucial role in regulating the water cycle, not only in Amazonia region but also in surrounding regions. Amazonia rainforest acts like a big engine in the climate system, enabling hot air to go up carrying energy as water vapor, acting as a giant fan helping to move the water from the forest to the air through a process called evapotranspiration (ET). Forests also release nonmethane volatile organic compounds, such as isoprene and terpenes, which act as cloud condensation nuclei, facilitating the formation of rain droplets and promoting cloud development and precipitation (Malhi et al., 2021). Approximately 13% of the global precipitation over the continental areas is concentrated in the Amazonia basin, which just accounts for 4.6% of the world’s land area (Espinoza et al., 2024).
On an average annual basis in Amazonia, about 72% of the water vapor entering the atmospheric column is of oceanic origin, and 28% is the result of the ET process acting locally. The rainfall-recycling ratio within the Amazon ranges from 24% to 35%, being higher during the dry season (Costa, Borma, Brando, et al., 2021). This process reduces water deficits and the impacts of dry months or years (Marengo et al., 2018; Werth & Avissar, 2004). Water vapor released into the atmosphere drives cloud formation and the entry of moisture from the ocean, controlling the onset of the rainy season (Fu et al., 2013; Wright et al., 2017). The presence of well-preserved and high forest cover guarantees that the Amazonia rainy season starts 2–3 months before the main monsoon-like convergence and precludes extended periods without rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season (Costa, Borma, Brando, et al., 2021; Leite-Filho et al., 2019).
The same air currents that arrive with moisture in the summer from the North Atlantic Ocean are moistened as they pass over the forest and transport moisture to other regions of the South American continent (the so-called flying rivers; Arraut et al., 2012; Figure 2). Covering 62% of Amazonia biome, Brazilian Amazonia provides approximately one-third of the annual rainfall to other Amazonia regions of Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador thanks to water recycling of the forest (Flores et al., 2024). It is estimated that 70% of forest evaporation from the Guianas and Amazonia is transported in favor of the air current to the La Plata River Basin (southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and central-eastern Argentina; Arraut et al., 2012; Lovejoy & Nobre, 2019; van der Ent & Savenije, 2011), contributing up to 18% of the rainfall in the La Plata Basin and up to 12% of the entire South American continent (Zemp et al., 2014).

Figure 2. Amazonian forests play a critical role in regional rainfall recycling, contributing to the transport of moisture to other regions of the South American continent (the so-called flying rivers.
Source: Costa, Borma, Espinoza, et al. (2021), p. 2.
A Natural Mechanism for Lowering Temperatures
Amazonian forests can reduce surface temperatures up to 5.0oC (Costa, Borma, Brando, et al., 2021; Zemp et al., 2014), regulating terrestrial warming on a local and global scale. When moistened air produced by Amazonian forests turns into clouds or rain, it releases heat into the air, causing cooling of the earth’s surface and minimizing the effects of interannual droughts and heat waves (Arias et al., 2018; Llopart et al., 2018; Pavão et al., 2017). Cooling local surface temperatures, effectively moderate the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges (Huang et al., 2022), thus compensating for part of the heating produced by the greenhouse gases (Artaxo et al., 2022). A medium-sized tree, with a canopy diameter of 5 m, for instance, injects 68–88 liters of water vapor to the atmosphere daily (considering evapotranspiration rates between 3.0 (wet season) to 4.5 (dry season) liters per m2.day−1; Costa & Foley, 1999), producing an air cooling of approximately 2,200 watts, equivalent to a 7,500 Btu/h (British thermal unit/hour) air-conditioning unit. A large tree with a 10 m canopy radius would almost double this rate. The Amazonian rain forests’ regulation of local and regional temperatures through intense ET helps maintain optimal conditions for photosynthesis (below 30oC), which is crucial for forest health.
Biodiversity Is Key Determinant of Climate Resilience
The role of biodiversity in climate regulation services can be more easily understood considering that bio-geophysical processes (i.e., ecosystem functions) depend on key properties of vegetation (i.e., land surface parameters) such as albedo, leaf area index, canopy architecture, and rooting depth (Borma et al., 2022). The forest canopy roughness favors air mixing, thus, increasing water, heat, and momentum flows. The High Leaf Area Index (i.e., the foliage cover in a given area) of tropical forests (5–6 m2m−2) relative to crops and grasses (1–3 m2m−2), favors evapotranspiration by intercepting and evaporating a greater amount of water in the leaves. The increase in plant transpiration rates is favored by deep roots (up to 18 m) in trees, providing access to deep soil water, which maintains the flow of moisture from the forest to the atmosphere during the whole year. Diversity in plant traits, such as the ability to withstand water and temperature stress, can be a determinant of Amazonian forests’ resilience against climate change (Levine et al., 2016; Zapata-Ríos et al., 2021). Consequently, the conservation of Amazonian forests is key to combat the climate and biodiversity crises. These dual crises erode the invaluable contributions of nature to human well-being, livelihoods, economies, and sustainable developmental prospects (Pörtner et al., 2023).
Synergism Between Climate and Land-Use Changes in Amazonia and Their Consequences for People and Nature
The Historical Drivers of Forest Loss, Ecosystem Degradation, and Injustices Toward Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities
The Enduring Legacy of Indigenous Peoples in Amazonia
Amazonia basin has been inhabited by Indigenous peoples for more than 12,000 years (Neves et al., 2021; Figure 3). During the Late Pleistocene, shifts in climate and forest cover influenced the migration patterns and population sizes of Indigenous communities in Amazonia basin. In response to these changes, diverse strategies were developed to adapt to environmental challenges (Neves et al., 2021). These early settlers developed remarkable linguistic and cultural diversity, creating a varied economy centered on the domestication and utilization of numerous plants and animals, with Indigenous peoples frequently moving between the Andes and Amazonia (Cuvi et al., 2021). The domestication of numerous species, valued both for their utility and cultural significance, involved various management techniques and transformed Amazonia into one of the world’s independent centers of plant domestication, serving as a cradle for the development of agrobiodiversity (Neves et al., 2021). Currently, the Amazonia basin houses 2.2 million Indigenous peoples who benefit from the ecosystem legacies left by their ancestors who transformed Amazonia landscapes into more productive ecosystems (Junqueira et al., 2016; Levis et al., 2018; Neves et al., 2021).

Figure 3. Indigenous peoples of Amazonia are distributed among more than 410 groups, speaking about 300 indigenous languages, one of the greatest concentrations of linguistic isolates on the planet (Neves et al., 2021). Pictured: “Cinta Larga” children, speakers of the Tupi Mondé language.
The European Perspective on Amazonian Economies
The European incursions into Amazonia during the 16th–18th centuries propagated various myths about the region’s ecosystems and peoples, such as the misconception of it being an empty and dangerous land. These myths were often used to justify the control and occupation of territories, the exploitation of natural resources like gold and plants, and the enslavement of Indigenous peoples, all under the guise of civilizing policies. The European view of Amazonia as a space with potential for extractive activities and association of the right to land with agriculture were fundamental aspects of colonial society (Cuvi et al., 2021).
Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, intensive mineral extraction, oil, and biodiversity exploitation shaped the Amazonia landscape (Larrea-Alcázar et al., 2021). This era witnessed the emergence of the concept of “modernization” in Amazonia, envisioning a transformation of traditional societies into a uniform modernity. Unfortunately, the promise of economic growth and structural change to alleviate poverty in the third world through science and technocratic planning has failed and has, in turn, perpetuated regional inequalities and poverty through the systematic exploitation of peripheral areas. Major economic centers facilitated this exploitation through large-scale transfers of public land to private owners; colonization programs; and support for sectors like oil, mining, sugar, and livestock, often intertwined with Cold War politics. These processes led to highly conflictual regional dynamics of territorial expropriation and local repression (Hecht et al., 2021).
Accelerating Destruction Through Commodity Economies
From 2000 to 2020, global market-driven development in Amazonian countries defined the neoliberalism period, characterized by reduced state intervention, privatization, openness to international investment, political decentralization, and tariff-free trade, shifting economies back to focusing on natural resource exports (Hecht et al., 2021). This monetary-centric vision has propagated the mistaken idea that there is no value in maintaining Amazonian forests standing, stimulating socioeconomic progress through extractive commodity-oriented economies justifying megainfrastructure projects (e.g., hydroelectric power plants and roads) and forest destruction (Alencar et al., 2021; Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021; Larrea et al., 2021). Starting in the 1960s, the Brazilian state promoted the colonization of Amazonia by granting “unoccupied lands” to peasant families, incentivizing forest clearing and expansion of agrarian frontiers, with severe impacts on Indigenous Territories, local communities, and their ecosystems (Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021).
Cattle ranching and commercial agriculture emerged as dominant land uses, driving deforestation and contributing significantly to environmental degradation, notably soil and water pollution, biodiversity loss, and soil erosion, linked to high net carbon emissions (Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021). Profits in these sectors were further fueled by land speculation and illicit activities like illegal timber production and coca (Erythroxylum coca) cultivation (in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia) and were supported by preferential policies, institutions, and political backing that facilitated access to critical technological knowledge for standardized agricultural and livestock practices (Hecht et al., 2021; Larrea et al., 2021). Global markets have driven land-use processes in Amazonia since the 2000s, expanding multiple commodities (e.g., soybean, meat, timber), accelerating transformations of the Amazonia Basin. The financial sector played a key role in this transformation by supporting infrastructure projects and ensuring flow of capital (Hecht et al., 2021). This exploratory model of Amazonia has significantly accelerated deforestation and ecosystem degradation rates, occurring over decades to centuries, compared to the tens to millions of years it took for the biodiversity-rich and geologically complex modern Amazonia to develop (Albert et al., 2023).
Amazonia Today
Currently, Amazonia basin is inhabited by ~47 million people, around 70% living in cities. Many families transition between rural and urban environments, with intermittent work, building the foundation of trade and exchange over short and long distances (Hecht et al., 2021; Lapola et al., 2021). Millions of residents in local communities within Amazonia rely on the forest’s resources to varying extents. These resources are vital for providing essential elements such as shelter, sustenance, fiber, security, and cultural and spiritual significance, in particular for Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs), such as Afro-descendants and riverine people, who are engaged in various forest management systems and economic activities (Athayde et al., 2021; Borma et al., 2022). The scenario of destruction linked to the uneven historical regional development process has brought social injustices, land-tenure insecurity, poverty, inequalities, and numerous other vulnerabilities to IPLCs (see more details in the section “Socioeconomic Consequences of Losing Climate Regulation Services From Forests”).
Climate Change, Deforestation, Forest Degradation, and Wildfires
In the historical context of the transformation of Amazonia, changes in land use and global atmospheric composition interact to influence local and regional climate regimes (Bottino et al., 2024), placing Amazonia at risk of irreversible ecosystem degradation and loss of critical ecosystem services (Flores et al., 2024; Nobre et al., 2016).
Climate Change
Global average near-surface temperature achieved in 2023 was 1.45oC ± 0.12 above preindustrial baseline (1850–1900)—2023 was identified as the record-breaking warmest year according to the World Meteorological Organization (2024). In addition, March 2023–February 2024 saw the highest average temperature on record at 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 preindustrial average (Copernicius, 2023). This increased trend in global warming is already affecting Amazonia by intensifying and increasing the frequency of climate extremes (Marengo et al., 2021, 2024).
The mean warming trend for the whole of Amazonia was 1.02 ± 0.12°C between 1979 and 2018 (Gatti, Basso, et al., 2021), and monthly maximum temperatures have increased by 0.04–0.06°C in most of Amazonia region (Da Silva et al., 2019). While the occurrence of El Niño is a natural phenomenon typically spaced at intervals of 3–7 years, there are indications that its frequency may increase linearly with the rise in global average temperature (IPCC, 2023). Amazonia is experiencing an increasing frequency of extreme climate event, such as the historically intense droughts recorded in 1906, 1912, 1926, 1964, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2015–2016, as well as the recent one in 2023–2024 (Jiménez-Muñoz et al., 2016; Marengo et al., 2021; Nobre et al., 2016; Figure 4). The Amazonia drought of 2023–2024 broke historical records in precipitation and temperature and led to a notable reduction in rainfall across the western-central Amazonia basin, with rainfall dropping 100–300 mm below average in Bolivian Amazonia and various Brazilian states (Costa & Marengo, 2023). In addition, during August 2023 to October 2023, the air temperature anomalies in Amazonia reached their highest levels since 1980, with values varying from +1.8°C to +2.7°C, surpassing previous record values (Espinoza et al., 2024). Additionally, it brought about four heat waves, influenced by the warming of surface waters in the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, resulting in air temperatures 2–5°C higher than usual during the austral winter and spring (Costa & Marengo, 2023).

Figure 4. Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense in Amazonia causing biodiversity loss and food and water insecurity (Costa & Marengo, 2023.
Land-Use Change
The interplay between land use, notably deforestation and degradation, with climate change is expected to increase the threats to Amazonia, affecting the hydrological cycle and escalating fires and forest degradation (Hirota et al., 2021, 2022). In the last decades, there has been a strong increase in deforestation in all countries, primarily driven by agricultural expansion, largely facilitated by the illegal appropriation of public forests through land grabbing (Berenguer et al., 2021; Costa, Larrea, et al., 2023). This destructive trend has been exacerbated by the decline of democratic institutions, creating a scenario where the protection of these vital ecosystems is increasingly compromised (Costa, Larrea, et al., 2023). Current estimates indicate that over the last 50 years, more than 130 million ha of Amazonian forests have been lost, representing approximately 16% of its original extent (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais [INPE], 1989; MapBiomas, 2023). Most of the deforestation has occurred in Brazil, which lost approximately 100 million hectares of forests (INPE, 2023), accounting for 20% of total forest loss (Figure 5). It is estimated that around 90% of the first deforestation becomes pastures, and after decades around 64% of all deforested land in Brazilian Amazonia has continued as pastures (INPE, 2023), and that 60% of pasture lands in the region are in a greater or lesser state of soil degradation (Dick et al., 2021). In addition, it is estimated that about 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests has been degraded by human-driven activities, such as wildfire, logging, droughts, and edge effects (Lapola et al., 2023). The significant expansion of degraded areas in the Brazilian Amazonia since the early 21st century has contributed to approximately 50% of emissions from deforestation (Assis et al., 2020).

Figure 5. Deforestation and degradation are linked to land grabbing and other illicit activities in Amazonia. Pictured: Mining on the Madeira River and deforestation on the edge of the Resex “Lago do Cuniã,” 2020.
Ecological Consequences of Losing Climate Regulation Services From Forests
Climate change and land-use change form a complex interplay, exacerbating surface warming, disrupting rainfall patterns, diminishing forest regeneration and accelerating biodiversity decline, amplifying greenhouse gas emissions via wildfires, heightening tree mortality, and accelerating decomposition processes (Artaxo et al., 2021; Brando et al., 2014; Brienen et al., 2015; Hirota et al., 2021). The profound impacts of the extreme 2023–2024 drought, coupled with heat waves, were particularly notable, leading to a significant increase in fish and aquatic mammal mortality in the Solimões-Amazonas River. Additionally, tree foliage loss along riverbanks and surface fires in drier forests are observed as consequences of extreme drought events (Costa & Marengo, 2023; Costa et al., 2024). Forest degradation resulting from such events leads to a two- to threefold increase in tree mortality rates (D’Angelo et al., 2004; Laurance et al., 2000) and a significant three- to sixfold reduction in seed and fruit production compared to intact forests (Hooper & Ashton, 2020).
Deforestation in Amazonia has far-reaching environmental consequences, including a rise in regional temperatures, decreased rainfall, delayed rainy seasons, and increased carbon emissions. Long-term observations (since the early 21st century) indicate that the atmosphere over the Amazonia rainforest is becoming drier due to global warming, biomass burning, and land-use change (Barkhordarian et al., 2019). Areas without forests are 1.4oC–3oC hotter than forested environments (Coe et al., 2017; Llopart et al., 2018). Deforestation initiates a cascade effect on climate regulation, starting with decreased evapotranspiration (ET), reduced cloud formation, and consequently, diminished rainfall production, as well as the loss of the forest’s cooling effect, influencing atmospheric circulation on regional and global scales (Ellison et al., 2017; Langenbrunner et al., 2019).
It is estimated that the relative air humidity in deforested areas is reduced by 5%–10% (Nobre et al., 1991). Precipitation in Brazilian Amazonia already decreased by 360 mm between 1999 and 2019, while maximum air temperature increased by 2.5°C (Leite-Filho et al., 2024). In heavily deforested areas of Amazonia, the rainy season starts late and is more likely to be interrupted (Leite-Filho et al., 2019). In years with high vapor deficit pressure (i.e., high ET demand), sap flow is reduced by 35%–70%, impacting gross productivity and leading to increased vegetation mortality (Fontes et al., 2018; Smith et al., 2021). Eastern Amazonia stands out as one of the most heavily deforested regions, experiencing temperature rises surpassing 3°C, rainfall reductions of up to 40% from July to November, and a delay in the onset of the rainy season (Leite-Filho et al., 2019). The dry season over all of eastern and southern Amazonia has been 4–5 weeks longer since 1979 (Leite-Filho et al., 2021) and 20%–30% drier (Gatti, Basso, et al., 2021).
The intensification and prolongation of the dry season exacerbate forest stress, rendering it drier and more susceptible to ignition, thereby leading to amplified carbon losses, especially through fire, in a positive feedback loop (Brando et al., 2020). In the southeast, there is an increase in recruitment of tree species adapted to seasonal climates, coupled with a reduction in the recruitment of species adapted to wet climates, indicating a shift toward forest composition more affiliated with dry climates in the region (Esquivel-Muelbert et al., 2019). Tree species richness is expected to suffer a profound impact by deforestation and climate change by 2050, declining up to 58% due to loss of their original environmentally suitable areas (Gomes et al., 2019).
The conversion of natural forests into agricultural lands contributes significantly to carbon emissions, with biomass burning during dry seasons being a major contributor (Castellanos et al., 2023). This, coupled with extreme climate events like El Niño, intensifies forest degradation and carbon release (Gatti et al., 2023). In the last decades, the increased frequency and intensity of fire events have contributed substantially to make the Amazonia basin transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source, emitting approximately 1.1 Gt CO2 yr−1 (Total Carbon Flux; Gatti et al., 2023). The incidence of wildfires surged during the 2015–2016 drought, with a 36% increase compared to the previous 12 years, resulting in the loss of approximately 2.5 billion trees and the release of 500–1,000 Mt of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (Aragão et al., 2018; Berenguer et al., 2021; Figure 6). The spike in deforestation and degradation between 2019 and 2020 led to carbon emissions similar to emissions during El Niño events (Gatti et al., 2023). Fire-affected forests show nearly 25% lower biomass levels compared to undisturbed forests (Silva et al., 2018). Approximately one-third of the CO2 lost by forests due to fire events could be offset by forest growth after 30 years (~45.0 Mg ha−1), indicating the potential for fires to reduce the forest carbon sink (Heinrich et al., 2023).

Figure 6. Wildfires have intensified in the last decade due to global warming and land-use change, turning the Amazonia basin into a carbon source (Costa & Marengo, 2023; Gatti et al., 2023). Pictured: A wildfire in Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil.
Forest recovery after disturbances might take centuries and is limited by reduced rainfall and the feedback of forest loss and intensification of regional droughts (Drüke et al., 2021; Staal et al., 2020; Zemp et al., 2017). Between 1991 and 2016, approximately 75% of forests lost their resilience, especially in drier areas near human-influenced zones (Boulton, 2021). This decline is particularly significant in drier areas adjacent to human-influenced zones. The loss of forest resilience is alarming because it can have cascading effects on rainfall recycling, leading to escalating dry seasons and wildfires, and ultimately resulting in extensive forest loss (Hirota et al., 2021; Nobre et al., 2016). Lovejoy and Nobre (2018), argued that the severity of the droughts in 2005, 2010, and 2015–2016 (as well as the 2023–2024 drought) may represent the first signs of ecological tipping points operating on a planetary scale, which may lead to a large-scale Amazonia rainforest dieback.
Based on simulation models, it has been determined that the tipping point for the dieback of Amazonian forests will be reached due to the combined effects of climate (2–2.5°C global warming) and land-use (20%–25% deforestation) changes (Nobre et al., 2016). A study shows that if there were only deforestation and zero climate change, the tipping point would be achieved with 40% of deforestation (Sampaio et al., 2007). On the other hand, if there were only climate change with zero deforestation, the tipping point would be achieved with 4°C global warming (Salazar et al., 2007). These effects include rainfall totals falling below 1,000 mm.yr−1 or 1,500 mm.yr−1, longer dry seasons that exceed 7 months, maximum cumulative water deficit values greater than 200 mm.yr−1 or 350 mm.yr−1 for Amazonia lowlands, a 2°C increase in the earth’s equilibrium temperature, and surpassing 20%–25% accumulated deforestation (Flores et al., 2024). While southeastern Amazonia has already surpassed the 20% deforestation threshold and experienced lengthening dry seasons affecting forest regeneration, the thresholds for large-scale forest dieback in Amazonia remain uncertain (Hirota et al., 2021).
Given the uncertainties and prevailing climate and land-use trends, the projections are indeed pessimistic. By integrating spatial data on multiple disturbances, Flores et al. (2024), projected that by 2050, 10%–47% of Amazonia rainforest would face overlapping disruptions, potentially leading to unforeseen shifts in ecosystems and exacerbating regional climate change. Under those circumstances, it is expected that Amazonian forests would be replaced by savanna-like vegetation, causing a reduction in mean annual rainfall by 44% and an increase in the length of the dry season by up to 69%. Furthermore, maximum daily temperature anomalies could reach values as high as 14°C above current climatic conditions (Bottino et al., 2024). If this scenario prevails, Amazonian primary and secondary forests would not be able to keep removing almost 1 billion tons of CO2 per year and recycling up to 50% rainfall. The release of atmospheric CO2 from Amazonian forests, both above and below ground, would increase carbon concentration by 85 ppm, an amount equivalent to 26% of the 690 ± 80 GtC released into the atmosphere by all human activities since the Industrial Revolution (1750–2020; Albert et al., 2023). This release would result in approximately a 0.5°C rise in the average global temperature (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).
Socioeconomic Consequences of Losing Climate Regulation Services From Forests
Climate change, deforestation, degradation, and loss of biodiversity have deep ecological consequences that lead to social impacts such as deteriorating health, heightened food insecurity, and violations of cultural and territorial rights (Armenteras et al., 2021; Barretto Filho et al., 2021). Additionally, there are significant economic ramifications affecting livelihoods, the availability of forest resources, revenues, land ownership, and gross domestic product (GDP).
Amazonia people are highly vulnerable to climate change, exacerbated by factors such as inequality, poverty, and structural violence. Injustice pervades governance structures, hindering vulnerable communities from meeting basic needs and safeguarding their rights and livelihood (Castellanos et al., 2023). Agricultural expansion over forested areas, illegal mining, and timber extraction exacerbates environmental degradation, labor informality, poverty, inequality, weak health, corruption, and violence against IPLCs (Painter et al., 2021). In addition, climate change together with deforestation, degradation, and wildfires contribute to various health issues, including respiratory syndromes, waterborne diseases, and malnutrition, aggravating food insecurity (Armenteras et al., 2021; Ellwanger et al., 2020). For example, the 20,000 illegal mining operations in Yanomami Territory have brought infectious diseases, including malaria and COVID-19, and mercury contamination (Instituto Socioambiental [ISA], 2020). Similarly, in the Madre de Dios gold mining region of southern Peru, mercury pollution is a significant and increasing threat to both the environment and public health, with Indigenous children achieving three times higher hair mercury concentration levels than non-Indigenous children (Ashe, 2012; Carnegie Amazon Mercury Ecosystem Project [CAMEP], 2013 ; Vallejos et al., 2020).
The densification of urban populations can enhance the spread of respiratory infections, exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic (Rader et al., 2020; Figure 7). Unregulated urbanization, coupled with inadequate sanitation and urban planning, can elevate the occurrence of arboviruses and diarrheal diseases in burgeoning Amazonian cities (Lowe et al., 2020; Viana et al., 2016). Ultimately, environmental degradation and urbanization can exacerbate food insecurity by undermining the availability of diverse and sustainable diets (Sundström et al., 2014). Around one-third of the Amazonia population is food insecure, with the most vulnerable areas facing extreme poverty and limited food access and consumption. The percentage of people living with food insecurity in Colombian and Ecuadorian Amazonia was between 25% and 30% during the first decade of the 2000s (Ortiz et al., 2013).

Figure 7. Increased urbanization can enhance the spread of respiratory infections, as exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
Amazonia is home to a vast and mostly unknown variety of parasites and zoonotic pathogens, such as viruses, bacteria, helminths, protozoans, ectoparasites, and fungi. These organisms pose potential health risks to humans (Zapata-Ríos et al., 2021). Extreme hydrological events in the Amazonia region increase the chances of agents of pathogens spreading and being exposed to humans, such as leptospirosis, gastroenteritis, and schistosomiasis. The migration of Amazonia rural people to cities aggravates the risks challenging the public health systems (Ellwanger et al., 2020). Among all forest species transmitting diseases to humans, mosquitoes are particularly sensitive to ecosystem alterations induced by deforestation (Aguirre et al., 2024). Initial findings suggest that a reduction of 1,000 ha of forest cover correlates with an additional 69 malaria cases. The potential cost of malaria cases in Peru is estimated to be as high as US$24.8 million (Aguirre et al., 2024). The incidence of malaria has also been linked to agricultural settlements and extractive activities, such as mining, aggravated by precarious access to basic services like sanitation and other health facilities. The 2024 dengue virus epidemic highlights the health challenges faced by countries in the Amazonia region and beyond (World Health Organization, 2024), influenced by average temperature increases and changes in rainfall patterns (Ellwanger et al., 2020).
The 2023–2024 Amazonia drought caused unprecedented impacts on the human population inside and outside Amazonian cities. Water scarcity, crop failures, and fish deaths forced many riverine residents to leave their communities, seeking water in makeshift camps kilometers away. In cities like Quito, Ecuador, the population faced up to 4-hour daily energy shortages due to reduced energy production from Amazonia dams (Costa & Marengo, 2023). The impacts of changes in rainfall patterns in Amazonia on agriculture could be severe, with some production systems becoming unviable due to loss of productivity (Leite-Filho et al., 2024). For example, double-cropping systems could experience a 17% decline in Amazonia-Cerrado transition area by 2050, putting their sustainability at risk (Abrahão & Costa, 2018; Pires et al., 2016). Data from the World Bank (Zaveri et al., 2023) suggests that a moderate drought could reduce the GDP of developing countries by 0.39%, while a severe drought, such as the one experienced in late 2023 and early 2024, could decrease the GDP of developing countries by 0.85% (Figure 8). These reductions translate into estimated losses for all Amazonian countries of approximately US$25.8 billion and US$27.3 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively (Aguirre et al., 2024). When considering the cascading effects of droughts given the role of Amazonia rainforests regulation and water recycling for other biomes in South America, such as the Andes and the Cerrado, the anticipated losses for South American countries would amount to around US$34.85 billion and US$36.56 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively. This results in GDP loss estimated at approximately 1.18% by 2049 due to decreased production and employment in the agricultural sector (Tanure et al., 2020).
The combination of drought, deforestation, and degradation raises the risk of forest fires, which can have a severe impact on human health. In Brazilian Amazonia, fires increased by 52.3% during the 2023 drought, releasing carbon and smoke that affected nearby cities. As a result, around 150,000 people in the region suffered from fire-related health issues. Smoke exposure can lead to acute and chronic health problems, including damage to DNA, gene mutation, cancer, and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (Armenteras et al., 2021; Ellwanger et al., 2020). It is estimated that protecting forests from fires could improve health outcomes for people living in Amazonian municipalities and prevent 15 million cases among Indigenous peoples and local communities, potentially saving the Brazilian government US$2 billion (Prist et al., 2023).

Figure 8. Expected losses on gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices due to droughts.
Nature-Based Solutions: A Sustainable Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Agenda for Amazonia
To avert large-scale tipping points of the Amazonia rainforest ecosystem, urgent actions must be taken to bolster forest resilience and strengthen Indigenous and local rights. It is essential to establish common principles and values for the future of Amazonia drawing from a synthesis of diverse perspectives. The Amazonia basin needs a significant shift from the current exploitative model to a regenerative socio-bioeconomy that prioritizes healthy standing forests and flowing rivers while engaging in a dialogue with Indigenous and local knowledge (Alencar et al., 2021; Varese et al., 2021). This new paradigm recognizes the importance of preserving ecosystems and the crucial role of Amazonian communities in safeguarding these valuable resources.
In the following sections, some nature-based solutions are introduced that aim to tackle the climate, biodiversity, and social crises in Amazonia. These solutions include (a) integrating the climate change agenda into Amazonian policy and practice, (b) implementing forest conservation strategies to combat deforestation and forest degradation, (c) promoting forest restoration efforts to address climate change and biodiversity loss, and (d) advancing the socio-bioeconomy of healthy standing forests and flowing rivers.
Integrating the Climate Change Agenda Into Amazonian Policy and Practice
Latin America and the Caribbean countries, collectively contribute 8% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG; Zaveri et al., 2023). Among these countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina stand out as the top emitters in the region, accounting for two-thirds of the total emissions. Agriculture and land-use change are major contributors to GHG emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean, comprising 47% of regional emissions, a significantly higher percentage compared to the global average of 19% for these sectors. Specifically, the livestock sector and related land-use changes contribute one-third of the GHG emissions at the regional level. Land-use changes have been the primary driver of emissions growth at the regional level, constituting two-thirds of the net increase. Deforestation emissions have been on the rise since 2016, with the most substantial annual increase occurring in 2020, largely due to the accelerated deforestation in Brazil following a decline in the 2000s. The observed decrease in deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia from January to June of 2024 compared to 2023 (38%) was not accompanied by degradation trends, with active fire spots increasing 62% (INPE, 2019), which influenced emissions.
Sustainable land-use practices offer a blend of adaptation, mitigation, and transition benefits in response to climate change while fostering employment opportunities that fuel recovery (Zaveri et al., 2023). Natural capital plays a crucial role in enhancing productivity, resilience, and regional growth. Vital environmental services, such as water supply regulation, local and global climate stabilization, nutrient cycling, pollination, soil retention, and sedimentation control, are essential for achieving long-term national development goals. Initiatives such as payments for ecosystem services, safeguarding critical natural habitats, and encouraging private investment in climate-smart agriculture and sustainable forestry can facilitate the promotion of sustainable land management. Prioritizing sustainable land management in Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru is imperative, where urgent action is needed to avert the looming threat of reaching an ecological tipping point in Amazonia (Zaveri et al., 2023).
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2023a), one of the primary mechanisms for both mitigating and adapting to climate change is through the implementation of National Determined Contributions (NDCs), which serve as the foundation for countries to pursue the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. These contributions encompass targets, policies, and measures aimed at reducing national emissions and addressing the impacts of climate change. Additionally, NDCs include information regarding the need for or provision of financial support, technology transfer, and capacity building to facilitate these actions. Countries are required to communicate new or updated NDCs every 5 years, with the process commencing in 2020. Most Latin American nations have revised their commitments to mitigate climate change in line with the UNFCCC, and nearly all countries in the region have updated their NDCs for climate change adaptation and mitigation. So far, all Amazonian countries have provided information regarding their mitigation targets and reference levels (Table 1). However, some countries have yet to provide information on planned strategies and interventions to reduce GHG emissions, while others are still in the early stages of their plans. Although many countries have pledged to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, only six countries have presented their long-term strategies (LTS) aimed at realizing this net-zero emissions objective. Colombia is the only Amazonian country to have defined its LTS.
Conversely, regarding the adaptation aspect (UNFCCC, 2023b), it is observed that 81% of parties incorporated an adaptation component into their NDCs, with 13% of these components classified as adaptation communications. Parties provided detailed information on various adaptation-related aspects, including research on adaptation, identification of risks and vulnerabilities, and formulation of adaptation strategies, as well as monitoring and evaluating adaptation efforts. Adaptation initiatives and economic diversification strategies with cobenefits for mitigation encompass activities such as afforestation and reforestation, adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, development of conservation plans for protected areas, promotion of nature-based solutions, and expansion of renewable energy sources. So far, four Amazonian countries have defined their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)UNFCCC, 2023b) that focus on (a) droughts (68%), (b) rainfall variability (63%), (c) increasing temperatures (59%), (d) floods (49%), (e) sea-level rise (17%), (f) landslides (17%), (g) heatwaves (7%), (h) tropical cyclones (7%), (i) strong winds (5%), (j) forest fires (2%), and (k) dry spells (2%).
In addition to the national climate agendas submitted to the UNFCCC, several countries are enacting specific projects and programs focused on adaptation and mitigation at the subnational level, such as the jurisdictional approach of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). However, there is limited evidence on whether and why certain subnational jurisdictions in the Global South opt to participate in decentralized climate action. In the study of Gueiros et al. (2023), examples of REDD+ readiness policy processes are examined in Brazil across five case studies (located in the states of Amazonas, Acre, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Amapá), which enabled the mentioned programs to access transnational climate finance at the subnational level. Some findings from their study suggest that subnational climate leadership can offer several benefits, including the customization of climate solutions to fit the social, economic, and environmental conditions of a subnational jurisdiction, enhancing their legitimacy and acceptance among the local population, and yielding insights into the most effective methods of reducing carbon emissions or adapting to climate change. Therefore, it can be concluded that even if some Amazonian countries have not yet implemented their NAPs, they are adopting a combination of subnational mitigation and adaptation initiatives to address the impacts of climate change.
Table 1. Status of Amazonian Countries in Terms of Advancing Mitigation (NDCs) and Adaptation (NAP) Strategies to Meet Paris Agreement Targets Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Country | Bolivia | Brazil | Colombia | Ecuador | Guyana | Peru | Suriname | Venezuela |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)* | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)* | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)* | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No |
Inclusion of mitigation targets in NDCs* | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
Inclusion of adaptation targets in NDCs* | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Specific legal/policy frameworks to enhance NDCs* | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
National Adaptation Plan sent to UNFCCC (NAP)** | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No |
National Adaptation Program of Action sent to UNFCCC (NAPA)** | No | No | No | No | No | No | No | No |
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions presented to UNFCCC (NAMA)** | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No |
Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy presented to UNFCCC (LT-LEDS)** | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No |
**UNFCCC (2023a, 2023b).
Source: Adapted from Painter et al. (2021).
Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories to Combat Deforestation, Degradation, Wildfires, and Climate Change
Developing common principles and values for the future of Amazonia is essential to avoid Amazonia tipping points and promote sustainable livelihood. This requires integrating distinct visions and strategies, such as reducing clear-cutting deforestation, forest degradation to zero within a decade, and wildfires. Biodiversity and forest conservation should take precedence for maintaining the remaining 84% of Amazonia rainforest that has not yet been converted to other land uses, which is critical to sustaining regional climate stability.
Viable strategies for combating deforestation and degradation include law enforcement; strengthening protection policies; and integrating protected areas (PAs), Indigenous Territories (ITs), and agroecological systems in supply chains. A quarter of Amazonia (27%) is formed by PAs, and an additional 27% is occupied by ITs (Figure 9). Sixty-seven percent of PAs lie in Brazil, followed by Bolivia (11.9%), Peru (11.2%), Colombia (4.9%), Ecuador (2.6%), Venezuela (1.3%), and French Guiana (0.7%; Josse et al., 2021). The mosaic of PAs and ITs serves as natural stepping-stones for biodiversity conservation (Gillingham & Thomas, 2023), maintaining connectivity among forest and freshwater ecosystems from local to regional scales (Encalada et al., 2024; Pineda-Zapata et al., 2024). This connectivity is crucial across active agricultural frontiers in heavily deforested regions of Amazonia, reconnecting isolated vegetation fragments and supporting species and Indigenous people’s resilience to climate changes (Gillingham & Thomas, 2023; Schwartzman et al., 2013).
PAs act as strongholds against deforestation and forest degradation, contributing to climate change mitigation. Efforts to protect old-growth forests and regenerate degraded ones could accumulate an average of 62 Mt C yr−1 (Gatti et al., 2023; Heinrich et al., 2021). ITs store nearly one-third of the aboveground carbon in Amazonia (28,247 Mt C; Walker et al., 2014). They are crucial for safeguarding both the land rights and well-being of the peoples and communities that live there and who have traditionally occupied this vast region. These territories play a vital role in preventing and mitigating the effects of deforestation, maintaining a stable regional climate, and mitigating global climate change by protecting 10%–20% of the world’s forest carbon stocks (Moutinho et al., 2022). However, deforestation within ITs and PAs is a growing concern. In Brazilian Amazonia, deforestation within ITs increased by 129% from 2013 to 2021, driven by recent setbacks in environmental policies up to 2022. This deforestation led to the emission of 96 Tg CO2 (million tons of CO2) into the atmosphere (Silva et al., 2023). PAs and ITs also play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of forest fires by absorbing particulate matter (PM2.5). ITs account for 27% of Amazonian forests’ capacity to absorb 26,376.66 tons of PM2.5 annually. This absorption capacity not only protects the environment but also significantly reduces its impacts on population’s respiratory health, saving around US$2 billion in health costs (Prist et al., 2023).
To address ongoing threats to PAs and ITs, such as downsizing, deforestation, degradation, and wildfires, it is imperative to (a) enhance the perception of PAs as sources of benefits for local communities and direct users; (b) implement sustainable and productive economic alternatives within PAs and their surrounding areas, improving local quality of life; (c) strengthen shared management agreements between PAs’ administrations and local communities/traditional authorities, facilitating conflict resolution mechanisms; (d) enhance institutional capacities for PAs management and administration, considering governance implications; and (e) view PAs as crucial strategies for adaptation and conservation in the face of climate change, promoting inclusive mechanisms at the regional level to bolster climate change management (Josse et al., 2021).

Figure 9. Map of the protected areas, Indigenous Territories, and arcs of restoration in Amazonia. Law enforcement and forest restoration are urgently needed to avoid Amazonia’s social and ecological tipping points while promoting an innovative socio-bioeconomy of healthy standing forests and flowing rivers (Barlow et al., 2022; Josse et al., 2021).
Forest Restoration Needs to Be Scaled Up to Combat Climate Change
Forest restoration is a nature-based solution recognized by the United Nations as an unprecedented opportunity to combat climate change (United Nations Environment Programme & Food and Agriculture Organization, 2022). This solution not only contributes to reducing the pace of global warming but also supports the Sustainable Development Goals related to food security and reducing poverty. Thus, forest restoration has transformative potential in the Amazonia region when considering environmental, economic, and social aspects.
In Brazilian Amazonia, there are nearly 3,000 forest restoration initiatives covering 113,500 ha. Of these, 59% involve agroforestry systems (AFS), 26% involve seedling planting, and only 5% focus on natural regeneration (Alliance for Restoration in the Amazon, 2020). Although ecological restoration through seedling planting accounts for 59% of the restored area, most of these projects are small scale, with areas smaller than 5 ha. Forest restoration in the region is primarily developed by civil society organizations (87.5%), followed by companies (5.6%), farmers (3.8%), research institutions (2.4%), and governments (0.7%; Alliance for Restoration in the Amazon, 2020). Among forest restoration practices in Amazonian countries, AFS strategies have been the main focus of research, accounting for 37.88% of the literature searched by Da Silva et al. (2023), followed by natural regeneration, representing 30.35%.
For forest restoration to effectively combat climate change and injustices and achieve biodiversity conservation, small-scale initiatives should be enforced, while large-scale initiatives should be fostered. This includes the implementation of sustainable forest management practices (Barlow, Sist, Almeida, Arantes, Berenguer, Caron, Cuesta, da Costa Doria, Ferreira, Flecker, Heilpern, Kalamandeen, Lees, Nascimento, Peña-Claros, et al., 2021) and actions to restore ecological integrity in degraded lands, while improving human well-being (namely, Forest Landscape Restoration; Chazdon et al., 2017). Some global and regional initiatives for large-scale forest restoration include the Bonn Challenge (IUCN, 2020); Target 2 of the 2030 Convention on Biological Diversity Global Biodiversity Framework to restore 30% of degraded terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal ecosystems by 2030 (CBD, 2021); the initiative 20 × 20 in Latin America and the Caribbean (IUCN, 2020); and the Brazilian initiative Arc of Restoration in Amazonia (BNDES, 2023).
In order to restore forests in Amazonia, the Arcs of Restoration initiative was established based on the recommendations made by the Science Panel for the Amazon (Barlow et al., 2022). The initiative seeks to restore 500,000 km2 in two of the most deforested and degraded regions in Amazonia. One region is located in southern Amazonia, spanning territories of Brazil and Bolivia and extending to the Brazilian Atlantic coast in the states of Pará and Maranhão. Estimates of carbon balance in the last 10 years have shown that this region is emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than absorbing (Gatti, Basso, et al., 2021), with livestock-farming expansion being the main driver of deforestation. The other region of the Arcs of Restoration is located along the Andes Mountain range, including territories in Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela, where the main drivers of deforestation are mining and oil exploration (Barlow et al., 2022).
The Arcs of Restoration initiative was endorsed by the Brazilian government and launched at the 28th Conference of the Parties in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in 2023. The initiative, associated with the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), benefits from REDD+ international funds and aims to restore 24 million ha of Amazonia rainforest in Brazil by 2050. With this, the Brazilian government hopes to (a) capture carbon from the atmosphere, contributing to slowing down global warming; (b) preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services; (c) generate jobs and income; and (d) build a natural barrier to contain the advance of deforestation. To kick-start this effort, the Brazilian government has allocated US$200 million and estimated the need for US$10 billion in financing. The second phase aims to restore 18 million ha from 2030 to 2050, with a projected investment of US$30 billion. Brazil considers that international resource mobilization is paramount to creating a forest restoration and protection belt involving Amazonia and other forests in the Global South. This effort will help combat climate change as restored forests absorb carbon from the atmosphere as they grow. It is estimated that the Arcs of Restoration initiative in Brazil has the potential to remove 1.65 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere annually (BNDES, 2023).
Restoration initiatives in Amazonia face numerous challenges, including the need to ensure an inclusive and participatory process for Indigenous peoples, traditional populations, small producers, and women. They must also integrate with other sectors of society and prioritize cobenefits across the Amazonia basin. Additionally, national governments’ requirements for land and environmental regularization, along with international demands and financial bottlenecks, complicate the scaling up of restoration efforts (Gatti et al., 2023). To ensure long-term success, restoration efforts must enable communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change, promote biodiversity conservation, and deliver socioeconomic benefits by linking restoration initiatives to sustainable production chains and the socioenvironmental bioeconomy (Barlow, Sist, Almeida, Arantes, Berenguer, Caron, Cuesta, da Costa Doria, Ferreira, Flecker, Heilpern, Kalamandeen, Lees, Nascimento, Laroche, et al., 2021).
Forest Restoration of Degraded Ecosystems Is Economically Feasible
Some areas in Amazonia, both terrestrial and aquatic, have undergone significant modification due to human activities, requiring sustained efforts for recovery (Barlow, Sist, Almeida, Arantes, Berenguer, Caron, Cuesta, da Costa Doria, Ferreira, Flecker, Heilpern, Kalamandeen, Lees, Nascimento, Peña-Claros, et al., 2021; Jakovac et al., 2021). Terrestrial regions used for livestock production suffer from soil compaction and invasive plant species, leading to the local extinction of native species (Jakovac et al., 2021). Aquatic areas demand river remediation due to pollution from various sources like sewage, mining, oil spills, and pesticides, along with barriers from hydroelectric dams disrupting river connectivity (Encalada et al., 2024). Numerous techniques have been developed for forest and river restoration in Amazonia (Barlow, Sist, Almeida, Arantes, Berenguer, Caron, Cuesta, da Costa Doria, Ferreira, Flecker, Heilpern, Kalamandeen, Lees, Nascimento, Peña-Claros, et al., 2021). Terrestrial restoration encompasses accelerating postmining recovery, reforesting deforested lands, promoting the recovery of degraded primary forests, and restoring sustainable economic activities through regenerative agriculture and AFS. Aquatic restoration involves remediating polluted habitats affected by mining, oil, and plastic; removing barriers; disrupting river connectivity; and fostering collaborative efforts to recover fisheries and floodplain habitats.
Although forest restoration techniques are known for both terrestrial and aquatic environments (Barlow, Sist, Almeida, Arantes, Berenguer, Caron, Cuesta, da Costa Doria, Ferreira, Flecker, Heilpern, Kalamandeen, Lees, Nascimento, Peña-Claros, et al., 2021), costs are better researched for terrestrial environments. Nevertheless, 95% of the studies on forest restoration lacked information on the economic costs (Wortley et al., 2013). This understanding is important because, without economic knowledge, only a few investors and farmers will be motivated to invest in forest restoration (Gasparinetti et al., 2022). The few studies that have looked into this reported that the implementation costs of active restoration of 1 ha (ha−1) of forest, using different techniques, range in Amazonia between US$50 and US$5,921 (Gasparinetti et al., 2019). Other studies have indicated that costs can exceed US$10,000 per ha in areas with severely degraded soil (Brancalion et al., 2015). This variation results from various factors, including, among others, the level of soil degradation, the selection of plant species, labor, and mechanization applied in forest restoration (Brancalion et al., 2015; Gasparinetti et al., 2022).
Forest restoration techniques involving natural regeneration or ecological restoration have proven more cost-effective for recovering large extents of degraded areas (Crouzeilles et al., 2020). Natural regeneration is the process by which native species establish themselves in areas to be restored without deliberate human intervention, while ecological restoration is the process to trigger, facilitate, or accelerate the natural process of ecological succession. The average investment to restore tropical forests through natural regeneration or ecological restoration, was 42% lower than the average investment of restoration models based on AFS or tropical forest plantations using native species (Gasparinetti et al., 2022).
In terms of economics, forest restoration using AFS or tropical forestry plantations has been assessed as financially viable (Brancalion et al., 2015; Gasparinetti et al., 2019) as they include species that can be harvested for obtaining timber and nontimber forest products. AFS can generate between US$400 and US$800 ha annually through the commercialization of nontimber forest products (Brandão et al., 2022), with profitability ranging from US$4 to US$76 per ha in the Amazonas region (Brazil; Gasparinetti et al., 2022) and between US$224 and US$520 per ha in Acre (Brazil; WWF-Brasil, 2020). The internal rate of return was estimated between 10% and 111%, and the return on investment between 2 and 13 years (Brandão et al., 2022).
Carbon markets enable the exchange of carbon credits for carbon removal or storage, creating a potential source of funding for Amazonia rainforest restoration efforts. The sector in Brazil has the potential to generate US$50 billion by 2030 (Valor Econômico, 2024). AFS have the capacity to capture carbon, with estimates ranging from 29 Mt CO2 ha−1 over 10 years to as much as 202 Mt CO2 ha−1 over a period exceeding 30 years. However, scaling up these efforts presents challenges, such as the need for additionality and carbon stock permanence at the project level. Addressing these challenges requires innovative financing solutions at the landscape level. This includes revisiting climate finance frameworks and expanding the financing scope for embracing forest and biodiversity protection and restoration initiatives and valuing multiple ecosystem services such as water recycling and climate cooling (Gatti et al., 2023).
Despite the large variation in financial indicators, resulting from factors such as implementation and management costs, species selection, and market peculiarities, studies indicate that stakeholders could repay their loan if an investment source is made available for forest restoration with AFS. Finally, plantations with native species have a cost/benefit ratio of 2.26 and an internal rate of return of 22%. These financial indicators may be even better with investments in genetic improvement (Brienza et al., 2008).
These studies indicate that forest restoration in Amazonia region may be economically feasible (Gasparinetti et al., 2022), but current financial support is insufficient to be significant (UNDP, 2023). While low-cost methods are efficient in increasing biodiversity and forest structure, higher cost methods show positive financial indicators in terms of return on investment. This reinforces the understanding derived from financial analyses conducted by the International Monetary Fund (Batini et al., 2021) that suggest that investments to protect natural ecosystems have powerful and positive effects on the local and global economy in the medium term.
For Amazonian countries to meet their national and international commitments to restoring millions of hectares of forest, it is important to identify cost-effective solutions that maximize benefits while minimizing costs. In Colombia, 70%–80% of the area targeted for restoration is within the agricultural frontier, which may face interest conflicts and demand high investments in active restoration through incentive-based programs such as payments for ecosystem services (Williams et al., 2024). Cost-effective solutions that maximize both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation benefits can support large-scale restoration efforts of critical importance for avoiding social and ecological tipping points in Amazonia. According to the analyses conducted by Williams et al., 2024, utilizing the potential for assisted natural regeneration in priority areas, such as zones reserved for restoration and conservation, is a cost-effective solution for restoring 1–8.31 million ha in Colombia. Considering economic factors such as land opportunity costs (including estimates of annual land rent) and establishment costs—which include active planting and a single follow-up round of maintenance—helps prioritize restoration efforts and increases the likelihood of success. In Colombia, these establishment costs range from US$1,836 to US$2,439 per ha, depending on specific management requirements such as irrigation, fertilization, pruning, and control of exotic species.
Forest Restoration to Achieve Food Security and Generate Employment
When applied on a large scale in Amazonia, forest restoration can generate food security (Garrett et al., 2023). Additionally, forest restoration in Amazonia can also contribute to preventing deforestation, combating degradation, enhancing regenerative agriculture, and generating jobs.
A large-scale forest restoration strategy should be linked to measures for acquiring primary production from biodiversity-based agroforestry and silvicultural systems (Sist et al., 2023). Such a strategy would require efforts to strengthen cooperatives and associations to acquire all timber and nontimber products from forest restoration. In addition to forest products that the local population can consume, such a strategy would result in job creation (Garrett et al., 2023; Sist et al., 2023).
Estimates of jobs generated by forest restoration in Amazonia are not well known. However, available estimates suggest that forest restoration has significant potential to create jobs. Studies covering the region indicate the creation of 100 jobs for every 420 ha restored, with 57% being temporary and 43% permanent (Brancalion et al., 2022). This suggests that restoring the planned 24 million ha under the Arc of Restoration initiative in Brazil by 2050 could potentially generate over 4 million permanent jobs.
Agroforestry and other food production systems adopted by Indigenous peoples and, more recently, by Afro-descendant populations and historical peasants (e.g., rubber tappers) are critical ways to achieve food security and sovereignty in Amazonia (Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021; Holt-Giménez & Altieri, 2013; Neves et al., 2021; Rosero-Peña, 2021). Agroforestry practices are critical in reducing people’s vulnerability to climate and biodiversity crises and should be integrated into sustainable food systems (Ortiz et al., 2013; Painter et al., 2021). The indigenous chagra in Colombia exemplifies a complex agroforestry system based on shifting agriculture. This system involves managing hundreds of plant species and varieties, including cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz., with 56 varieties), peach palm (Bactris gasipaes Kunth, with 13 varieties), and pineapple (Ananas comosus [L.] Merr., with 35 varieties), enabling Indigenous families to achieve self-sufficiency (Marentes et al., 2022). In terms of nutrition, the most common plant species in AFS in Amazonia can provide a significant amount of carbohydrates, fats, and plant-based protein. Some of these species include the cupuassu tree (Theobroma grandiflorum [Willd. ex Spreng.] K. Schum.), cassava (M. esculenta), açaí (Euterpe oleracea Mart.), and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims). Products from these species are sold in markets and used by families as a food resource (Cruz et al., 2021; Freitas et al., 2021).
Food and other benefits from forest restoration, such as increased employment opportunities and income generation, can significantly aid millions of people in Amazonia, especially those living in low-income and rural areas (Verner, 2004). Indeed, the effectiveness of AFS in nourishing smallholder farmers’ families and communities has also been observed in tropical and subtropical climate countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, and Vietnam (IUCN, 2023). A transition to a circular, nature-based economy must prioritize smallholders and Indigenous land rights, as well as food sovereignty, in order to avoid land grabbing by large agrobusinesses (Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021; Hecht et al., 2021). This transition requires recognizing Indigenous and local knowledge and integrating intercultural education practices to foster dialogue in conservation initiatives between diverse knowledge systems (Frieri et al., 2021; Varese et al., 2021; Figure 10). Maintaining food systems relies on providing financial incentives and technological support in locally based agroecology networks to address current challenges of increasing urbanization and climate change (Costa, Schmink, et al., 2021; Holt-Giménez & Altieri, 2013). Furthermore, support from the international community is essential to create and maintain sustainable food systems (Painter et al., 2021).

Figure 10. Educational experiences in land management using traditional knowledge practices from the Koripako school from the Baniwa Indigenous People (A–C; Frieri et al., 2021).
A Socio-Bioeconomy of Healthy Standing Forests and Flowing Rivers
Amazonia region has enormous potential for a biodiversity-based economy, and to leverage this potential, it is crucial to focus on science, technology, and innovation for sustainable development (Abramovay et al., 2021; Nobre & Nobre, 2018). The socio-bioeconomy refers to economies that revolve around the sustainable use and restoration of healthy standing forests and flowing rivers. Its primary purpose is to support the well-being, knowledge, rights, and territories of IPLCs, Amazonian residents, and the global community. This economic model places justice, especially for Indigenous women and youth, and diversity, as core values. It combats poverty and inequality and aims to reduce structural inequities in value capture, power, and representation (Garrett et al., 2023).
This concept is distinct from other contemporary bioeconomy views and adoptions, which have focused mostly on the economic use of biological resources (Abramovay et al., 2021). Certain activities that lead to deforestation, forest degradation, and regional climate change, such as livestock production, monoculture of crops like soybean and palm oil, and illegal mining exploration, are not considered in the socioeconomy approach (Garrett et al., 2023). The socio-bioeconomy of standing forests and flowing rivers is more than a new economic model for Amazonia; it brings ethical-normative values to the relationship between society and nature and their consequences (Abramovay et al., 2021). Therefore, it includes putting a stop to activities that endanger protected areas, establishing inclusive and collaborative planning processes, avoiding financial subsidies for activities that harm the environment and redirecting them to positive environmental actions, strengthening connections between social groups and economic sectors on different scales, and supporting conducive conditions for protected area activities, such as land rights, youth and women empowerment, and promotion of cooperative and entrepreneurial associations (Garrett et al., 2023).
It aims to add social and economic value to biodiversity products like fruits, nuts, medicines, and fish while conserving and restoring forest and aquatic ecosystems (Garrett et al., 2023). Bio-industrialization can significantly enhance the production process’s value (Nobre & Nobre, 2020). For example, cocoa seeds are typically sold for approximately US$2 per kg. However, the value of high-quality chocolate can range between US$20 and US$40 per kg. This indicates that the value added from seed to cocoa chocolate production can be more than 10 times higher than seed sales. Investing in bio-industrialization is crucial for adding value to products derived from Amazonian ecosystems, including those obtained from forest restoration. By industrializing these products, their selling price can increase from two to five times compared to the primary product. For instance, fresh Brazil nuts (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.) with shells ranged from US$2 to US$4 per kg, while dehydrated seeds (after preprocessing) were sold for US$15 (Brandão, 2023).
This socio-bioeconomic approach has the potential to benefit millions of people who reside in the Amazonia region. It has been estimated that around 6 million individuals, out of the 28 million residing in Legal Amazonia (IBGE, 2023), rely on the forest for their sustenance (Lopes et al., 2019). A socio-bioeconomic approach can benefit not only the forest inhabitants and the people who depend on it but also the global community. The global market has increasingly recognized Amazonia biodiversity products, exemplified by açaí and Brazil nuts (Abramovay et al., 2021; Garrett et al., 2023), driving the momentum toward a sustainable, low-carbon global bioeconomy (Costa et al., 2022). This trend is evidenced by the significant economic impact observed in 2019 when the value chains of 30 bioeconomy products in Amazonia generated US$1.4 billion in income and provided employment for 224,600 workers (Garrett et al., 2023; Nobre et al., 2023).
Numerous challenges persist in Amazonia’s socioeconomic landscape. These challenges include moving away from traditional agricultural and livestock practices while ensuring the participation of IPLCs in planning processes, the development of sustainable infrastructure for food processing, improving access to information, energy supply, connectivity between producers and markets through transportation and information technology, and more (Abramovay et al., 2021; Garrett et al., 2023; Schaeffer et al., 2023). These essential requirements are critical for achieving Sustainable Development Goals worldwide and depend on various governmental and nongovernmental actors, actuating nationally and internationally (Painter et al., 2021). International and national funding, for instance, should support these efforts to conserve ecosystem services and innovations fostering socio-bioeconomic production and processing for transforming Amazonia into a global frontier for science, technology, and innovation (Abramovay et al., 2021).
Concluding Remarks
The Amazonia rainforest, as the world’s largest tropical forest, plays an indispensable role in global atmospheric dynamics and ecosystem health. However, it faces an accelerated path toward an irreversible tipping point, driven by climate change, deforestation, and unsustainable resource use. The destruction of Amazonia has profound global consequences, exacerbating climate change and disrupting rainfall patterns, which in turn affects forest regeneration and biodiversity. Historically, the collapse of human societies has often stemmed from poor decisions in the face of environmental crises, a pattern mirrored in the current Amazonian predicament. The forest’s ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and atmospheric moisture regulation, are critical for regional and global climate stability. Despite this, a monetary-centric vision has led to policies that prioritize extractive industries and large infrastructure projects, undermining the forest’s value and accelerating its destruction. This has severe social impacts, including deteriorating health, food insecurity, and violations of cultural and territorial rights, particularly for millions of Indigenous peoples and local communities who have conserved Amazonian ecosystems for centuries.
To prevent large-scale ecological and social tipping points, urgent actions are necessary. These include integrating climate change agendas into Amazonian policies, implementing forest conservation and restoration strategies, and advancing a socio-bioeconomy that values healthy standing forests and flowing rivers. Developing common principles and values for Amazonia’s future is essential to maintaining the remaining forest cover and promoting sustainable livelihoods. Law enforcement, protection policies, and the integration of protected areas and agroecological systems are vital strategies for combating deforestation and degradation. Forest restoration, recognized by the United Nations as a key nature-based solution, holds transformative potential for the Amazonia region. When scaled appropriately, it can enhance food security, promote sustainable development, and leverage the region’s biodiversity for economic growth. Science, technology, and innovation will be crucial in realizing these goals and securing a sustainable future for Amazonia and the planet.
References
- Abrahão, G. M., & Costa, M. H. (2018). Evolution of rain and photoperiod limitations on the soybean growing season in Brazil: The rise (and possible fall) of double-cropping systems. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 256–257(June), 32–45.
- Abramovay, R., Ferreira, J., Costa, F. de A., Ehrlich, M., Castro Euler, A. M., Young, C. E. F., Kaimowitz, D., et al. (2021). Opportunities and challenges for a healthy standing forest and flowing rivers bioeconomy in the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–52). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Aguirre, J., Pedro Rojas, T., Edward, Y., & Yenerall, J. (2024). Spatial spillovers and the relationship between deforestation and malaria: Evidence from the Peruvian Amazon. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 1–17.
- Albert, J. S., Carnaval, A. C., Flantua, S. G. A., Lohmann, L. G., Ribas, C. C., Riff, D., Carrillo, J. D., et al. (2023). Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon. Science, 379(6630), 1–9.
- Alencar, A., Painter, L., Athayde, S., Bynoe, P., Duchelle, A. E., Hecht, S., Murmis, M. R., Paez, B., Soltani, A., & Lucas, I. L. (2021). A pan-Amazonian sustainable development vision. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–34). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Alliance for Restoration in the Amazon. (2020). Forest landscape restoration in the Amazon—Overview and paths to follow [Position paper]. Conservação Internacional-Brasil, WRI Brasil.
- Antonelli, A., Zizka, A., Carvalho, F. A., Scharn, R., Bacon, C. D., Silvestro, D., & Condamine, F. L. (2018). Amazonia is the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(23), 6034–6039.
- Aragão, L. E. O. C., Anderson, L. O., Fonseca, M. G., Rosan, T. M., Vedovato, L. B., Wagner, F. H., Silva, C. V. J., et al. (2018). 21st century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions. Nature Communications, 9(1), 536.
- Arias, M. E., Lee, E., Farinosi, F., Pereira, F. F., & Moorcroft, P. R. (2018). Decoupling the effects of deforestation and climate variability in the Tapajós River basin in the Brazilian Amazon. Hydrological Processes, 32(11), 1648–1663.
- Armenteras, D., Berenguer, E., Andreazzi, C. S., Dávalos, L. M., Duponchelle, F., Hacon, S., Lescano, A. G., Macedo, M., & Nascimento, N. (2021). Human well-being and health impacts of the degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–24). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Arraut, J. M., Nobre, C., Barbosa, H. M. J., Obregon, G., & Marengo, J. (2012). Aerial rivers and lakes: Looking at large-scale moisture transport and its relation to Amazonia and to subtropical rainfall in South America. Journal of Climate, 25(2), 543–556.
- Artaxo, P., de Almeida-Val, V. M. F., Bilbao, B., Brando, P. M., Bustamante, M., Coe, M. T., Correa, S. B., et al. (2021). Impacts of deforestation and climate change on biodiversity, ecological processes, and environmental adaptation. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–33). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Artaxo, P., Hansson, H. C., Augusto Machado, L. T., & Rizzo, L. V. (2022). Tropical forests are crucial in regulating the climate on earth. PLOS Climate, 1(8), e0000054.
- Ashe, K. (2012). Elevated mercury concentrations in humans of Madre de Dios, Peru. PLOS ONE, 7(3), e33305.
- Assis, T. O., De Aguiar, A. P. D., Von Randow, C., De Paula Gomes, D. M., Kury, J. N., Ometto, J. P. H. B., & Nobre, C. A. (2020). CO2 emissions from forest degradation in Brazilian Amazon. Environmental Research Letters, 15(10), 104035.
- Athayde, S., Shepard, G., Cardoso, T. M., van der Voort, H., Zent, S., Rosero-Peña, M. C., Zambrano, A. A., Suruí, G. W., & Larrea-Alcazar, D. M. (2021). Critical interconnections between the cultural and biological diversity of Amazonian peoples and ecosystems. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–34). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Barkhordarian, A., Saatchi, S. S., Behrangi, A., Loikith, P. C., & Mechoso, C. R. (2019). A recent systematic increase in vapor pressure deficit over tropical South America. Scientific Reports, 9, 15331.
- Barlow, J., Anderson, L., Berenguer, E., Brancalion, P., Carvalho, N., Ferreira, J., Garrett, R., et al. (2022). Transforming the Amazon through “arcs of restoration” [Policy brief].
- Barlow, J., Sist, P., Almeida, R., Arantes, C., Berenguer, E., Caron, P., Cuesta, F., da Costa Doria, C. R., Ferreira, J., Flecker, A., Heilpern, S., Kalamandeen, M., Lees, A. C., Nascimento, N., Laroche, C. P., et al. (2021). Restoration priorities and benefits within landscapes and catchments and across the Amazon Basin. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–27). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Barlow, J., Sist, P., Almeida, R., Arantes, C., Berenguer, E., Caron, P., Cuesta, F., da Costa Doria, C. R., Ferreira, J., Flecker, A., Heilpern, S., Kalamandeen, M., Lees, A. C., Nascimento, N., Peña-Claros, M., et al. (2021). Restoration options for the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–28). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Barretto Filho, H. T., Ramos, A., Sobral Barra, C., Barroso, M., Caron, P., Benzi Grupioni, L. D., von Hildebrand, M., et al. (2021). Strengthening land and natural resource governance and management: Protected areas, indigenous lands, and local communities’ territories. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–30). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Batini, N., Serio, M. D., Fragetta, M., Melina, G., & Waldron, A. (2021). Building back better: How big are green spending multipliers? [WP/21. 87]. International Monetary Fund.
- Berenguer, E., Armenteras, D., Lees, A. C., Smith, C. C., Fearnside, P., Nascimento, N., Alencar, A., et al. (2021). Drivers and ecological impacts of deforestation and forest degradation. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–40). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Banco Nacional do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social. (2023). Arco de Restauração Na Amazônia.
- Borma, L. S., Costa, M. H., da Rocha, H. R., Arieira, J., Nascimento, N. C. C., Jaramillo-Giraldo, C., Ambrosio, G., et al. (2022). Beyond carbon: The contributions of South American tropical humid and subhumid forests to ecosystem services. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(4), e2021RG000766.
- Bottino, M. J., Nobre, P., Giarolla, E., da Silva, M. B., Jr., Capistrano, V. B., Malagutti, M., Tamaoki, J. N., de Oliveira, B. F. A., & Nobre, C. A. (2024). Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 1–11.
- Boulton, C. (2021, April). Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s. Nature Climate Change, 12(3), 271–278.
- Brancalion, P. H. S., Pugliese de Siqueira, L., Amazonas, N. T., Rizek, M. B., Mendes, A. F., Santiami, E. L., Rodrigues, R. R., et al. (2022). Ecosystem restoration job creation potential in Brazil. People and Nature, 4(6), 1426–1434.
- Brancalion, P. H. S., Sergius, G., & Ribeiro, R. R. (2015). Restauração Florestal (1st ed., Vol. 1). Oficina de Textos.
- Brandão, D. O. (2023). Desmatamento Na Amazônia e Influência Nos Produtos Florestais Não-Madeireiros de Uso Econômico Local. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.
- Brandão, D. O., Barata, L. E. S., & Nobre, C. A. (2022). The effects of environmental changes on plant species and forest dependent communities in the Amazon region. Forests, 13(3), 466.
- Brando, P., Macedo, M., Silvério, D., Rattis, L., Paolucci, L., Alencar, A., Coe, M., & Amorim, C. (2020). Amazon wildfires: Scenes from a foreseeable disaster. Flora, 268(July), 151609.
- Brando, P. M., Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Morton, D. C., Putz, F. E., Coe, M. T., Silvério, D., et al. (2014). Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(17), 6347–6352.
- Brienen, R. J. W., Phillips, O. L., Feldpausch, T. R., Gloor, E., Baker, T. R., Lloyd, J., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., et al. (2015). Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature, 519(7543), 344–348.
- Brienza, S., Jr., Pereira, J. F., Yared, J. A. G., Mourão, M., Jr., de Almeida Gonçalves, D., & Galeão, R. R. (2008). Recuperação de Áreas Degradadas Com Base Em Sistema de Produção Florestal Energético-Madeireiro: Indicadores de Custos, Produtividade e Renda—Portal Embrapa. Embrapa.
- Carnegie Amazon Mercury Ecosystem Project. (2013). Mercury in Madre de Dios mercury concentrations in fish and humans in Puerto Maldonado. Carnegie Institution for Science.
- Castellanos, E., Lemos, M. F., Astigarraga, L., Chacón, N., Cuvi, N., Huggel, C., Miranda, L., et al. (2023). Central and South America. In Climate change 2022—Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 1689–1816. Cambridge University Press.
- Convention on Biological Diversity. (2021). First draft of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
- Chazdon, R. L., Brancalion, P. H. S., Lamb, D., Laestadius, L., Calmon, M., & Kumar, C. (2017). A policy‐driven knowledge agenda for global forest and landscape restoration. Conservation Letters, 10(1), 125–132.
- Cheng, H., Sinha, A., Cruz, F. W., Wang, X., Lawrence Edwards, R., D’Horta, F. M., Ribas, C. C., Vuille, M., Stott, L. D., & Auler, A. S. (2013). Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity. Nature Communications, 4(1), 1–6.
- Coe, M. T., Brando, P. M., Deegan, L. A., Macedo, M. N., Neill, C., & Silvério, D. V. (2017). The forests of the Amazon and Cerrado moderate regional climate and are the key to the future. Tropical Conservation Science, 10(January), 194008291772067.
- Copernicius. (2023). Global climate highlights 2023. World Health Organization.
- Costa, F., & Marengo, J. (2023). Statement on the 2023 Amazon drought. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Costa, F. R. C., Marengo, J. A., et al. (2024). Droughts in the Amazon. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Costa, M. H., Borma, L., Brando, P. M., Marengo, J. A., Saleska, S. R., & Gatti, L. V. (2021). Biogeophysical cycles: Water recycling, climate regulation. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–22). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Costa, M. H., Borma, L. S., Espinoza, J. C., Macedo, M., Marengo, J. A., Marra, D. M., Ometto, J. P., & Gatti, L. V. (2021). The physical hydroclimate system of the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–31). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Costa, M. H., & Foley, J. A. (1999). Trends in the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon basin. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 104(D12), 14189–14198.
- Costa, F., et al. (2022). Bioeconomy for the Amazon: Concepts, limits, and trends for a proper definition of the tropical forest biome [Working paper]. WRI Brasil.
- Costa, F. de A., Larrea, C., Araújo, R., Benatti, J. H., Giraldo, V., Hecht, S., Murmis, M. R., Peters, S., Schmink, M., Terán, E., & Treccani, J. (2023). Land market and illegalities: The deep roots of deforestation in the Amazon. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Costa, F. de A., Schmink, M., Hecht, S., Assad, E. D., Humphreys Bebbington, D., Brondizio, E. S., Fearnside, P., Garrett, R., Heilpern, S., McGrath, D., Oliveira, G., & Pereira, H. (2021). Chapter 15: Complex, diverse, and changing agribusiness and livelihood systems in the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–59). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Crouzeilles, R., Beyer, H. L., Monteiro, L. M., Feltran-Barbieri, R., Pessôa, A. C. M., Barros, F. S. M., Lindenmayer, D. B., et al. (2020). Achieving cost‐effective landscape‐scale forest restoration through targeted natural regeneration. Conservation Letters, 13(3), 1–9.
- Crowther, T. W., Glick, H. B., Covey, K. R., Bettigole, C., Maynard, D. S., Thomas, S. M., Smith, J. R., et al. (2015). Mapping tree density at a global scale. Nature, 525(7568), 201–205.
- Cruz, F. d. O., Jr., da Luz Freitas, J., & dos Santos, A. C. (2021). Sistemas Agroflorestais de Agricultores Familiares Em Área de Terra Firme, Santana, Amapá, Brasil. In Agroecologia: Métodos e Técnicas Para Uma Agricultura Sustentável (1st ed., vol. 1, pp. 138–156). Editora Científica Digital.
- Cuvi, N., Mombiola, A. G., & Ardaya, Z. L. (2021). Peoples of the Amazon and European colonization (16th–18th centuries). In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–36). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- D’Angelo, S. A., Andrade, A. C. S., Laurance, S. G., Laurance, W. F., & Mesquita, R. C. G. (2004). Inferred causes of tree mortality in fragmented and intact Amazonian forests. Journal of Tropical Ecology, 20(2), 243–246.
- da Silva, C. M., Elias, F., do Nascimento, R. O., & Ferreira, J. (2023). The potential for forest landscape restoration in the Amazon: State of the art of restoration strategies. Restoration Ecology, 31(5), e13955.
- da Silva, P. E., e Silva, C. M. S., Spyrides, M. H. C., & de Melo Barbosa Andrade, L. (2019). Precipitation and air temperature extremes in the Amazon and northeast Brazil. International Journal of Climatology, 579–595.
- Diamond, J., Raposo, A., & Maia, W. D. (2005). Colapso Como as Sociedades Escolhem o Fracasso Ou o Sucesso. Record.
- Dick, M., Abreu da Silva, M., Franklin da Silva, R. R., Ferreira, O. G. L., de Souza Maia, M., Ferreira de Lima, S., de Paiva Neto, V. B., & Dewes, H. (2021). Environmental impacts of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Amazon, Cerrado, Pampa, and Pantanal biomes. Journal of Cleaner Production, 311(August), 127750.
- Drüke, M., von Bloh, W., Sakschewski, B., Wunderling, N., Petri, S., Cardoso, M., Barbosa, H. M. J., & Thonicke, K. (2021). Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled earth system model. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 230(14), 3153–3162.
- Ehlers, T. A., & Poulsen, C. J. (2009). Influence of Andean uplift on climate and paleoaltimetry estimates. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 281(3–4), 238–248.
- Ellison, D., Morris, C. E., Locatelli, B., Sheil, D., Cohen, J., Murdiyarso, D., Gutierrez, V., et al. (2017). Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world. Global Environmental Change, 43(March), 51–61.
- Ellwanger, J. H., Kulmann-Leal, B., Kaminski, V. L., Valverde-Villegas, J. M., Da Veiga, A. B. G., Spilki, F. R., Fearnside, P. M., et al. (2020). Beyond diversity loss and climate change: Impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health. Anais Da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias, 92(1), 20191375.
- Encalada, A., Val, A. L., Athayde, S., Macedo, M., Marmontel, M., Espinoza, J.-C., Miranda, G., Piedade, M. T. F., da Mota e Silva, T., & Arieira, J. (2024). Conserving the Amazon’s freshwater ecosystems’ health and connectivity [Policy brief]. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Espinoza, J. C., Jimenez, J. C., Marengo, J. A., Schongart, J., Ronchail, J., Lavado-Casimiro, W., & Ribeiro, J. V. M. (2024). The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 1–12.
- Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Baker, T. R., Dexter, K. G., Lewis, S. L., Brienen, R. J. W., Feldpausch, T. R., Lloyd, J., et al. (2019). Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 39–56.
- Eyring, V., Gillett, N. P., Achuta Rao, K. M., Barimalala, R., Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., et al. (2023). Human influence on the climate system. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate change 2021—The physical science basis (pp. 423–552). Cambridge University Press.
- Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., et al. (2024). Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature, 626(7999), 555–564.
- Flower, B. P., & Kennett, J. P. (1994). The middle miocene climatic transition: East Antarctic ice sheet development, deep ocean circulation and global carbon cycling. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 108(3–4), 537–555.
- Fontes, C. G., Dawson, T. E., Jardine, K., McDowell, N., Gimenez, B. O., Anderegg, L., Negrón-Juárez, R., et al. (2018). Dry and hot: The hydraulic consequences of a climate change–type drought for Amazonian trees. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 373(1760), 20180209.
- Freitas, M. A. B., Magalhães, J. L. L., Carmona, C. P., Arroyo-Rodríguez, V., Vieira, I. C. G., & Tabarelli, M. (2021). Intensification of Açaí palm management largely impoverishes tree assemblages in the Amazon estuarine forest. Biological Conservation, 261(September), 109251.
- Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O’Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., et al. (2021). Global carbon budget 2021. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 2021, 1–191.
- Frieri, S., Bortolotto, F., Rivera, G. A., Baniwa, A. F., Herrera, B., van der Hammen, M. C., & Moutinho, P. (2021). Milestones and challenges in the construction and expansion of participatory intercultural education in the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–29). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Fu, R., Yin, L., Li, W., Arias, P. A., Dickinson, R. E., Huang, L., Chakraborty, S., et al. (2013). Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(45), 18110–18115.
- Garrett, R., Ferreira, J., Abramovay, R., Brandão, J., Brondizio, E., Euler, A., Pinedo, D., et al. (2023). Supporting sociobioeconomies of healthy standing forests and flowing rivers in the Amazon [Policy brief]. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Gasparinetti, P., Brandão, D. O., Maningo, E. V., Khan, A., Cabanillas, F., Farfan, J., Román-Dañobeytia, F., et al. (2022). Economic feasibility of tropical forest restoration models based on non-timber forest products in Brazil, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Peru. Forests, 13(11), 1878.
- Gasparinetti, P., Brandão, D. O., Victor, A., & Nhanja, A. (2019). Economic feasibility study for forest landscape restoration banking models: Cases from southern Amazonas state, Brazil. Conservação Estratégica, WWF.
- Gatti, L. V., Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Domingues, L. G., Cassol, H. L. G., Tejada, G., et al. (2021). Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature, 595(7867), 388–393.
- Gatti, L. V., Costa, P. M., Arieira, J., Blackham, G., Alencar, A., Macedo, M., Brown, F., et al. (2023). Human impacts on carbon emissions, losses in ecosystems services and financial solutions in the Amazon [Policy brief]. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Gatti, L. V., Melack, J., Basso, L. S., Restrepo-Coupe, A. P., Aguiar, N., Pangala, S., Saleska, S. R., Aragão, L., Phillips, O. L., & Armenteras, D. (2021). The Amazon carbon budget. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–9). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Gillingham, P., & Thomas, C. D. (2023). Protected areas do already act as steppingstones for species responding to climate change. Global Change Biology, 29(23), 6439–6440.
- Gomes, V. H. F., Vieira, I. C. G., Salomão, R. P., & ter Steege, H. (2019). Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change. Nature Climate Change, 9(7), 547–553.
- Guayasamin, J. M., Ribas, C. C., Carnaval, A. C., Carrillo, J. D., Hoorn, C., Lohmann, L. G., Riff, D., Ulloa Ulloa, C., & Albert, J. S. (2021). Evolution of Amazonian biodiversity. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–42). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Gueiros, C., Jodoin, S., & McDermott, C. L. (2023). Jurisdictional approaches to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Brazil: Why do states adopt jurisdictional policies? Land Use Policy, 127(April), 106582.
- Hecht, S., Schmink, M., Abers, R., Assad, E. D., Bebbington, D. H., Brondizio, E. S., Costa, F. de A., et al. (2021). Amazon in motion: Changing politics, development strategies, peoples, landscapes, and livelihoods. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–65). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Heinrich, V. H. A., Dalagnol, R., Cassol, H. L. G., Rosan, T. M., de Almeida, C. T., Silva, C. H. L., Jr., Campanharo, W. A., et al. (2021). Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change. Nature Communications, 12(1), 1–11.
- Heinrich, V. H. A., Vancutsem, C., Dalagnol, R., Rosan, T. M., Fawcett, D., Silva, C. H. L., Jr., Cassol, H. L. G., et al. (2023). The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests. Nature, 615(7952), 436–442.
- Hirota, M., Flores, B. M., Betts, R., Borma, L. S., Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., Lapola, D. M., Montoya, E., Oliveira, R. S., & Sakschewski, B. (2021.) Resilience of the Amazon forest to global changes: Assessing the risk of tipping points. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1-32). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Hirota, M., Nobre, C. A., Arieira, J., Costa, F. A., Flores, B., Gandour, C., Josse, C., Levis, C., Póveda, G., & Young, C. E. F. (2022). A call for global action to move the Amazon forest system away from tipping points (pp. 1–8).
- Holt-Giménez, E., & Altieri, M. A. (2013). Agroecology, food sovereignty, and the new green revolution. Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems, 37(1), 90–102.
- Hooper, E. R., & Ashton, M. S. (2020). Fragmentation reduces community-wide taxonomic and functional diversity of dispersed tree seeds in the Central Amazon. Ecological Applications: A Publication of the Ecological Society of America, 30(5).
- Hoorn, C., Wesselingh, F. P., Ter Steege, H., Bermudez, M. A., Mora, A., Sevink, J., Sanmartín, I., et al. (2010). Amazonia through time: Andean uplift, climate change, landscape evolution, and biodiversity. Science, 330(6006), 927–931.
- Huang, A., Xu, X., Jia, G., & Shen, R. (2022). Asymmetrical cooling effects of Amazonian protected areas across spatiotemporal scales. Environmental Research Letters, 17(5), 054038.
- Instituto Brasileiro De Geografica E Estatística. (2023, October). Sidra: Banco de Tabelas Estatísticas.
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. (1989). Avaliação da alteração da cobertura florestal na Amazônia Legal utilizando sensoriamento remoto orbital. Cachoeira Paulista.
- Instituto Nacional De Pesquisas Espaciais. (2019). Banco de Dados de Queimadas.
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. (2023). Monitoramento do uso e cobertura da terra nas áreas desflorestadas da Amazônia Legal—TerraClass Amazônia.
- Instituto Socioambiental. (2020). Nota técnica para contribuir ao combate da Covid-19 Na Terra Indígena Yanomami.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2022—Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
- International Union for Conservation of Nature. (2020). The Bonn challange.
- International Union for Conservation of Nature. (2023). Forest landscape restoration pathways to achieving the SDGs.
- Jakovac, C. C., Junqueira, A. B., Crouzeilles, R., Peña‐Claros, M., Mesquita, R. C. G., & Bongers, F. (2021). The role of land‐use history in driving successional pathways and its implications for the restoration of tropical forests. Biological Reviews, 96(4), 1114–1134.
- Jiménez-Muñoz, J. C., Mattar, C., Barichivich, J., Santamaría-Artigas, A., Takahashi, K., Malhi, Y., Sobrino, J. A., & Van Der Schrier, G. (2016). Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016. Scientific Reports, 6(1), 1–7.
- Josse, C., de Melo Futada, S., von Hildebrand, M., de los Ríos, M. M., Oliveira-Miranda, M. A., de Moraes Tenório, E. N., & Tuesta, E. (2021). The state of conservation policies, protected areas, and indigenous territories, from the past to the present. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–33). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Junqueira, A. B., Almekinders, C. J. M., Stomph, T.-J., Clement, C. R., & Struik, P. C. (2016). The role of Amazonian anthropogenic soils in shifting cultivation: Learning from farmers’ rationales. Ecology and Society, 21(1), art12.
- Langenbrunner, B., Pritchard, M. S., Kooperman, G. J., & Randerson, J. T. (2019). Why does Amazon precipitation decrease when tropical forests respond to increasing CO2? Earth’s Future, 7(4), 450–468.
- Lapola, D. M., Paez, B., Costa, S., da Silva, R. D., Jr., Peluso, D., Moutinho, P., Padgurschi, M., et al. (2021). Boosting relations between the Amazon forest and its globalizing cities. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–33). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Lapola, D. M., Pinho, P., Barlow, J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Berenguer, E., Carmenta, R., Liddy, H. M., et al. (2023). The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation. Science, 379(6630).
- Larrea, C., Murmis, M. R., Peters, S., Escobar, A., Larrea-Alcazar, D. M., Mantilla, L. M., Pichilingue, E., Terán-Mantovani, E., & van den Bergh, M. (2021). Globalization, extractivism, and social exclusion: Country-specific manifestations. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–46). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Larrea-Alcázar, D. M., Cuvi, N., Valentim, J. F., Diaz, L., Vidal, S., & Palacio, G. (2021). Economic drivers in the Amazon after European colonization from the nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century (the 1970s). In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–25). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Latrubesse, E. M. (2000). The late Pleistocene in Amazonia: A paleoclimatic approach. In Southern hemisphere paleo- and neoclimates (pp. 209–224). Springer.
- Laurance, W. F., Delamonica, P., Laurance, S. G., Vasconcelos, H. L., & Lovejoy, T. E. (2000). Rainforest fragmentation kills big trees. Nature, 404(6780), 836–836.
- Leite-Filho, A. T., de Sousa Pontes, V. Y., & Costa, M. H. (2019). Effects of deforestation on the onset of the rainy season and the duration of dry spells in southern Amazonia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(10), 5268–5281.
- Leite-Filho, A. T., Soares-Filho, B. S., Davis, J. L., Abrahão, G. M., & Börner, J. (2021). Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon. Nature Communications, 12(1), 1–7.
- Leite-Filho, A. T., Soares-Filho, B. S., & de Oliveira, U. (2024). Climate risks to soy-maize double-cropping due to Amazon deforestation. International Journal of Climatology, 44(4), 1245–1261.
- Levine, N. M., Zhang, K., Longo, M., Baccini, A., Phillips, O. L., Lewis, S. L., Alvarez-Dávila, E., et al. (2016). Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(3), 793–797.
- Levis, C., Flores, B. M., Moreira, P. A., Luize, B. G., Alves, R. P., Franco-Moraes, J., Lins, J., et al. (2018). How people domesticated Amazonian forests. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 5(January), 299700.
- Llopart, M., Reboita, M., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., da Rocha, R., & de Souza, D. (2018). Land use change over the Amazon forest and its impact on the local climate. Water, 10(2), 149.
- Lopes, E., Soares-Filho, B., Souza, F., Rajão, R., Merry, F., & Carvalho Ribeiro, S. (2019). Mapping the socio-ecology of non timber forest products (NTFP) extraction in the Brazilian Amazon: The case of Açaí (Euterpe Precatoria Mart) in acre. Landscape and Urban Planning, 188(August), 110–117.
- Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2019). Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action. Science Advances, 5(12).
- Lowe, R., Lee, S., Lana, R. M., Codeço, C. T., Castro, M. C., & Pascual, M. (2020). Emerging arboviruses in the urbanized Amazon rainforest. British Medical Journal, 371(November), m4385.
- Luizão, R. C. C., Luizão, F. J., & Proctor, J. (2007). Fine root growth and nutrient release in decomposing leaf litter in three contrasting vegetation types in Central Amazonia. Plant Ecology, 192(2), 225–236.
- Maksic, J., Shimizu, M. H., de Oliveira, G. S., Venancio, I. M., Cardoso, M., & Ferreira, F. A. (2018). Simulation of the holocene climate over South America and impacts on the vegetation. The Holocene, 29(2), 287–299.
- Malhi, Y., Melack, J., Gatti, L. V., Ometto, J., Kesselmeier, J., Wolff, S., Aragão, L. E. O., et al. (2021). Biogeochemical cycles of the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–37). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Marengo, J. A., Cunha, A. P., Espinoza, J.-C., Fu, R., Schöngart, J., Jimenez, J. C., Costa, M. C., Ribeiro, J. M., Wongchuig, S., & Zhao, S. (2024). The drought of Amazonia in 2023-2024. American Journal of Climate Change, 13(3), 567–597.
- Marengo, J. A., Espinoza, J.-C., Fu, R., Muñoz, J. C. J., Alves, L. M., da Rocha, H. R., & Schongart, J. (2021). Long-term variability, extremes, and changes in temperature and hydro meteorology. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–33). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Marengo, J. A., Souza, C. M., Thonicke, K., Burton, C., Halladay, K., Betts, R. A., Alves, L. M., & Soares, W. R. (2018). Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: Current and future variability and trends. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6(December), 228.
- Marentes, H., Alejandra, M., Venturi, M., Scaramuzzi, S., Focacci, M., & Santoro, A. (2022). Traditional forest-related knowledge and agrobiodiversity preservation: The case of the Chagras in the Indigenous Reserve of Monochoa (Colombia). Biodiversity and Conservation, 31(10), 2243–2258.
- Moraes, R. M., Correa, S. B., Doria, C. R. C., Duponchelle, F., Miranda, G., Montoya, M., Phillips, O. L., Salinas, N., et al. 2021. Amazonian ecosystems and their ecological functions. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1-33). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Moutinho, P., Leite, I., Baniwa, A., Mirabel, G., Josse, C., Macedo, M., Alencar, A., Salinas, N., & Ramos, A. (2022). The role of Amazonian indigenous peoples in fighting the climate crisis [Policy brief]. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Neves, E. G., Furquim, L. P., Levis, C., Rocha, B. C., Waitling, J. G., de Almeida, F. O., Betancourt, C. J., et al. (2021). Peoples of the Amazon before European colonization. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–40). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Nobre, A., Sampaio, G., Borma, L., Castilla-Rubio, J., Silva, J., & Cardoso, M. (2016). Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(39), 10759–10768.
- Nobre, C., Encalada, A., Anderson, E., Roca Alcazar, F. H., Bustamante, M., Mena, C., Peña-Claros, M., et al. (Eds.). (2021). Amazon assessment report 2021. United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Nobre, C. A., Feltran-Barbieri, R., Costa, F. de A., Haddad, E. A., Schaeffer, R., Domingues, E. P., Rocha Frasson, C. M., et al. (2023, June). Nova economia da Amazônia. World Resources Institute.
- Nobre, C. A., Sellers, P. J., & Shukla, J. (1991). Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. Journal of Climate, 4(10), 957–988.
- Nobre, I., & Nobre, C. (2020). ‘Amazon 4.0’ project: Defining a third way for the Amazon. Futuribles, 434(1), 95–108.
- Nobre, I., & Nobre, C. A. (2018). The Amazonia third way initiative: The role of technology to unveil the potential of a novel tropical biodiversity-based economy. In Land use—Assessing the past, envisioning the future. IntechOpen.
- Ortiz, R., Nowak, A., Lavado, A., & Parker, L. (2013). Food security in Amazonia: Report of the Amazonia Security Agenda Project. Global Canopy Programme and International Center for Tropical Agriculture. CIAT, GCP, CDKN, Futuro Latinoamericano.
- Painter, L., Alencar, A., Bennett, A., Bynoe, P., Guio, C., Murmis, M. R., Paez, B., et al. (2021). Sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–32). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Pavão, V. M., Nassarden, D. C. S., Pavão, L. L., Machado, N. G., & Biudes, M. S. (2017). Impacto Da Conversão Da Cobertura Natural Em Pastagem e Área Urbana Sobre Variáveis Biofísicas No Sul Do Amazonas. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 32(3), 343–351.
- Phillips, O. L., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Lewis, S. L., Fisher, J. B., Lloyd, J., López-González, G., Malhi, Y., et al. (2009). Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science, 323(5919), 1344–1347.
- Pineda-Zapata, S., González-Ávila, S., Armenteras, D., González-Delgado, T. M., & Morán-Ordoñez, A. (2024). Mapping the way: Identifying priority potential corridors for protected areas connectivity in Colombia. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, 22(2), 156–166.
- Pires, G. F., Abrahão, G. M., Brumatti, L. M., Oliveira, J. C., Costa, M. H., Liddicoat, S., Kato, E., & Ladle, R. J. (2016). Increased climate risk in Brazilian double cropping agriculture systems: Implications for land use in Northern Brazil. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228, 286–298.
- Pörtner, H. O., Scholes, R. J., Arneth, A., Barnes, D. K. A., Burrows, M. T., Diamond, S. E., Duarte, C. M., et al. (2023). Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts. Science, 380(6642).
- Prist, P. R., Sangermano, F., Bailey, A., Bugni, V., del Carmen Villalobos-Segura, M., Pimiento-Quiroga, N., Daszak, P., & Zambrana-Torrelio, C. 2023. Protecting Brazilian Amazon Indigenous territories reduces atmospheric particulates and avoids associated health impacts and costs. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 1–12.
- Rader, B., Scarpino, S. V., Nande, A., Hill, A. L., Adlam, B., Reiner, R. C., Pigott, D. M., et al. (2020). Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics. Nature Medicine, 26(12), 1829–1834.
- Rosero-Peña, M. C. (2021). African presence in the Amazon; a glance. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–30). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Saatchi, S. S., Harris, N. L., Brown, S., Lefsky, M., Mitchard, E. T. A., Salas, W., Zutta, B. R., et al. (2011). Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(24), 9899–9904.
- Salazar, L. F., Nobre, C. A., & Oyama, M. D. (2007). Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(9), 1–6.
- Salinas, N., Malhi, Y., Meir, P., Silman, M., Roman Cuesta, R., Huaman, J., Salinas, D., et al. (2011). The sensitivity of tropical leaf litter decomposition to temperature: Results from a large-scale leaf translocation experiment along an elevation gradient in Peruvian forests. New Phytologist, 189(4), 967–977.
- Sampaio, G., Nobre, C., Costa, M. H., Satyamurty, P., Soares-Filho, B. S., & Cardoso, M. (2007). Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(17), 1–7.
- Schaeffer, R., Barrantes, R., Klautau, A., Malky, A., Fiorini, A. C. O., Calisto, A. M. D., Abelem, A., et al. (2023). A new infrastructure for the Amazon [Policy brief]. Science Panel for the Amazon.
- Schwartzman, S., Boas, A. V., Ono, K. Y., Fonseca, M. G., Doblas, J., Zimmerman, B., Junqueira, P., et al. (2013). The natural and social history of the Indigenous lands and protected areas corridor of the Xingu River basin. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Series B, Biological Sciences, 368(1619), 20120164.
- Silva, C. V. J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Barlow, J., Espirito-Santo, F., Young, P. J., Anderson, L. O., Berenguer, E., et al. 2018. Drought-induced Amazonian wildfires instigate a decadal-scale disruption of forest carbon dynamics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 373(1760), 20180043.
- Silva, C. H. L., Jr., Silva, F. B., Arisi, B. M., Mataveli, G., Pessôa, A. C. M., Carvalho, N. S., Reis, J. B. C., et al. (2023). Brazilian Amazon indigenous territories under deforestation pressure. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 1–9.
- Sist, P., Peña-Claros, M., Calles, J. P. B., Derroire, G., Kanashiro, M., Ortega, K. M., Piponiot, C., et al. (2023). Forest management for timber production and forest landscape restoration in the Amazon: The way toward sustainability [Policy brief].
- Smith, C. C., Healey, J. R., Berenguer, E., Young, P. J., Taylor, B., Elias, F., Espírito-Santo, F., & Barlow, J. (2021). Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries. Environmental Research Letters, 16(8), 085009.
- Staal, A., Fetzer, I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bosmans, J. H. C., Dekker, S. C., van Nes, E. H., Rockström, J., & Tuinenburg, O. A. (2020). Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–8.
- Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., Ewango, C. E. N., et al. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science, 368(6493), 869–874.
- Sundström, J. F., Albihn, A., Boqvist, S., Ljungvall, K., Marstorp, H., Martiin, C., Nyberg, K., Vågsholm, I., Yuen, J., & Magnusson, U. (2014). Future threats to agricultural food production posed by environmental degradation, climate change, and animal and plant diseases—A risk analysis in three economic and climate settings. Food Security, 6(2), 201–215.
- Tanure, T. M. d. P., Miyajima, D. N., Magalhães, A. S., Domingues, E. P., & Carvalho, T. S. (2020). The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049. EconomiA, 21(1), 73–90.
- Ter Steege, H., Pitman, N. C. A., Sabatier, D., Baraloto, C., Salomão, R. P., Guevara, J. E., Phillips, O. L., et al. (2013). Hyperdominance in the Amazonian tree flora. Science, 342(6156), 1243092.
- United Nations Development Programme. (2023). Forests can help us limit climate change—Here is how.
- United Nations Environment Programme, & Food and Agriculture Organization. (2022). The UN decade on ecosystem restoration 2021–2030.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2023a). National adaptation plans 2023: Progress in the formulation and implementation of NAPS.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2023b, December 12). Nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement.
- Val, P., Figueiredo, J., de Melo, G., Flantua, S. G. A., Quesada, C. A., Fan, Y., Albert, J. S., Guayasamin, J. M., & Hoorn, C. 2021. Geology and geodiversity of the Amazon: Three billion years of history. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021. United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Vallejos, P. Q., Veit, P. G., Tipula, P., & Reytar, K. (2020). Undermining rights: Indigenous lands and mining in the Amazon.
- Valor Econômico. (2024). Brasil pode liderar mercado de carbono no mundo; previsão é que setor movimente US$ 50 bi até 2030.
- van der Ent, R. J., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2011). Length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(5), 1853–1863.
- Van Der Hammen, T., & Hooghiemstra, H. (2000). Neogene and quaternary history of vegetation, climate, and plant diversity in Amazonia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19(8), 725–742.
- Varese, M., Rodríguez, C., Piland, N., Athayde, S., Reyes, D. A., da Costa Doria, C. R., Echeverri, J. A., et al. (2021). Connecting and sharing diverse knowledges to support sustainable pathways in the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–42). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Verner, D. (2004). Poverty in the Brazilian Amazon: An assessment of poverty focused on the State of Para. Research Working Paper Series. World Bank Group.
- Viana, R. L., Machado de Freitas, C., & Luiz Giatti, L. (2016). Saúde Ambiental e Desenvolvimento Na Amazônia legal: Indicadores Socioeconômicos, Ambientais e Sanitários, Desafios e Perspectivas. Saúde e Sociedade, 25(1), 233–246.
- Walker, W., Baccini, A., Schwartzman, S., Ríos, S., Oliveira-Miranda, M. A., Augusto, C., Ruiz, M. R., et al. (2014). Forest carbon in Amazonia: The unrecognized contribution of indigenous territories and protected natural areas. Carbon Management, 5(5–6), 479–485.
- Werth, D., & Avissar, R. (2004). The regional evapotranspiration of the Amazon. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 100–109.
- Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., et al. (2020). An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years. Science, 369(6509), 1383–1388.
- Williams, B. A., López-Cubillos, S., Ochoa-Quintero, J. M., Crouzeilles, R., Villa-Piñeros, M., Cubides, P. J. I., Schmoeller, M., et al. (2024). Bringing the forest back: Restoration priorities in Colombia. Diversity and Distributions, 30(4), e13821.
- World Health Organization. (2024). Dengue—Global situation.
- World Meteorological Organization. (2024). Climate change indicators reached record levels in 2023.
- Wortley, L., Hero, J.‐M., & Howes, M. (2013). Evaluating ecological restoration success: A review of the literature. Restoration Ecology, 21(5), 537–543.
- Wright, J. S., Rong, F., Worden, J. R., Chakraborty, S., Clinton, N. E., Risi, C., Sun, Y., & Yin, L. (2017). Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(32), 8481–8486.
- World Wide Fund for Nature-Brasil. (2020). Avaliação Financeira da Restauração Florestal com Agroflorestas na Amazônia (1st ed., pp. 1–31).
- Zapata-Ríos, G., Andreazzi, C. S., Carnaval, A. C., da Costa Doria, C. R., Duponchelle, F., Flecker, A., Guayasamin, J. M., et al. (2021). Biological diversity and ecological networks in the Amazon. In C. Nobre, A. Encalada, E. Anderson, F. H. R. Alcazar, M. Bustamante, C. Mena, M. Peña-Claros et al. (Eds.), Amazon assessment report 2021 (pp. 1–50). United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
- Zaveri, E. D., Damania, R., & Engle, N. L. (2023). Droughts and deficits—Summary evidence of the global impact on economic growth (English). Water Global Practice. World Bank.
- Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C. F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., & Rammig, A. (2017). Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications, 8(1), 1–10.
- Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C. F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Van Der Ent, R. J., Donges, J. F., Heinke, J., Sampaio, G., & Rammig, A. (2014). On the importance of cascading moisture recycling in South America. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14(23), 13337–13359.