In recent decades, macroeconomic researchers have looked to incorporate financial intermediaries explicitly into business-cycle models. These modeling developments have helped us to understand the role of the financial sector in the transmission of policy and external shocks into macroeconomic dynamics. They also have helped us to understand better the consequences of financial instability for the macroeconomy. Large gaps remain in our knowledge of the interactions between the financial sector and macroeconomic outcomes. Specifically, the effects of financial stability and macroprudential policies are not well understood.
Alfred Duncan and Charles Nolan
Simon van Norden
Most applied researchers in macroeconomics who work with official macroeconomic statistics (such as those found in the National Accounts, the Balance of Payments, national government budgets, labor force statistics, etc.) treat data as immutable rather than subject to measurement error and revision. Some of this error may be caused by disagreement or confusion about what should be measured. Some may be due to the practical challenges of producing timely, accurate, and precise estimates. The economic importance of measurement error may be accentuated by simple arithmetic transformations of the data, or by more complex but still common transformations to remove seasonal or other fluctuations. As a result, measurement error is seemingly omnipresent in macroeconomics. Even the most widely used measures such as Gross Domestic Products (GDP) are acknowledged to be poor measures of aggregate welfare as they omit leisure and non-market production activity and fail to consider intertemporal issues related to the sustainability of economic activity. But even modest attempts to improve GDP estimates can generate considerable controversy in practice. Common statistical approaches to allow for measurement errors, including most factor models, rely on assumptions that are at odds with common economic assumptions which imply that measurement errors in published aggregate series should behave much like forecast errors. Fortunately, recent research has shown how multiple data releases may be combined in a flexible way to give improved estimates of the underlying quantities. Increasingly, the challenge for macroeconomists is to recognize the impact that measurement error may have on their analysis and to condition their policy advice on a realistic assessment of the quality of their available information.
Charles Ka Yui Leung and Cho Yiu Joe Ng
This article summarizes research on the macroeconomic aspects of the housing market. In terms of the macroeconomic stylized facts, this article demonstrates that with respect to business cycle frequency, there was a general decrease in the association between macroeconomic variables (MV), such as the real GDP and inflation rate, and housing market variables (HMV), such as the housing price and the vacancy rate, following the global financial crisis (GFC). However, there are macro-finance variables, such as different interest rate spreads, that exhibited a strong association with the HMV following the GFC. For the medium-term business cycle frequency, some but not all patterns prevail. These “new stylized facts” suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate. This article also provides a review of the corresponding academic literature, which may enhance our understanding of the evolving macro-housing–finance linkage.
Yong Song and Tomasz Woźniak
Markov switching models are a family of models that introduces time variation in the parameters in the form of their state, or regime-specific values. This time variation is governed by a latent discrete-valued stochastic process with limited memory. More specifically, the current value of the state indicator is determined by the value of the state indicator from the previous period only implying the Markov property. A transition matrix characterizes the properties of the Markov process by determining with what probability each of the states can be visited next period conditionally on the state in the current period. This setup decides on the two main advantages of the Markov switching models: the estimation of the probability of state occurrences in each of the sample periods by using filtering and smoothing methods and the estimation of the state-specific parameters. These two features open the possibility for interpretations of the parameters associated with specific regimes combined with the corresponding regime probabilities. The most commonly applied models from this family are those that presume a finite number of regimes and the exogeneity of the Markov process, which is defined as its independence from the model’s unpredictable innovations. In many such applications, the desired properties of the Markov switching model have been obtained either by imposing appropriate restrictions on transition probabilities or by introducing the time dependence of these probabilities determined by explanatory variables or functions of the state indicator. One of the extensions of this basic specification includes infinite hidden Markov models that provide great flexibility and excellent forecasting performance by allowing the number of states to go to infinity. Another extension, the endogenous Markov switching model, explicitly relates the state indicator to the model’s innovations, making it more interpretable and offering promising avenues for development.