Figure 3. This plot is constructed from the Jordà et al. (2016a) data set of 17 countries, with first observations in 1870, combined with authors’ calculations. The series represent unweighted arithmetic averages over individual recession events, where for each event, real GDP per capita has been normalized to 100 at the onset of the recession. Recessions represent any period of negative growth in real GDP per capita. Recessions are denoted as “High debt” when the ratio of credit to private-sector nonfinancial firms over GDP > 1 at the onset of the recession (n = 16). All other recessions are denoted as “Low debt” (n = 63).