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Article

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) represent a prominent class of time series models used for macroeconomic analysis. The model consists of a set of multivariate linear autoregressive equations characterizing the joint dynamics of economic variables. The residuals of these equations are combinations of the underlying structural economic shocks, assumed to be orthogonal to each other. Using a minimal set of restrictions, these relations can be estimated—the so-called shock identification—and the variables can be expressed as linear functions of current and past structural shocks. The coefficients of these equations, called impulse response functions, represent the dynamic response of model variables to shocks. Several ways of identifying structural shocks have been proposed in the literature: short-run restrictions, long-run restrictions, and sign restrictions, to mention a few. SVAR models have been extensively employed to study the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks and test economic theories. Special attention has been paid to monetary and fiscal policy shocks as well as other nonpolicy shocks like technology and financial shocks. In recent years, many advances have been made both in terms of theory and empirical strategies. Several works have contributed to extend the standard model in order to incorporate new features like large information sets, nonlinearities, and time-varying coefficients. New strategies to identify structural shocks have been designed, and new methods to do inference have been introduced.

Article

The comparative study of advanced capitalist political economies emerged as a distinct subfield of political science in the late 1970s. A number of early contributions to this subfield sought to explain cross-national variation of macroeconomic performance, but the subfield increasingly focused its attention on other issues—the consequences of welfare states, industrial relations, and skill formation for innovation, competition, and the distribution of income—in the 15–20 years prior to the global crisis of 2007–2009. The crisis and its aftermath has ushered in renewed interest in macroeconomic management among comparative political economists. As in the past, this theme is linked to that of interdependence among capitalist economies and the room for partisan differences in macroeconomic policy priorities. In addition, recent contributions to comparative political economy distinguish growth models in terms of the role played by different components of aggregate demand and explore the distributive implications of divergent growth trajectories in countries that have traditionally been conceived as belonging to one or another variety of capitalism. With economic growth re-emerging as a central concern in the wake of the crisis, the New Keynesian tradition features prominently in recent efforts to put macroeconomics back into comparative political economy. However, comparative political economists also ought to engage with the Post-Keynesian tradition, which assigns a more important role to policy choices than the New Keynesian tradition. Positing that distributive conflict and power relations are critical to macroeconomic dynamics, the Post-Keynesian tradition provides useful analytical foundations for understanding the political foundations of divergent growth trajectories among advanced capitalist political economies.

Article

Alfred Duncan and Charles Nolan

In recent decades, macroeconomic researchers have looked to incorporate financial intermediaries explicitly into business-cycle models. These modeling developments have helped us to understand the role of the financial sector in the transmission of policy and external shocks into macroeconomic dynamics. They also have helped us to understand better the consequences of financial instability for the macroeconomy. Large gaps remain in our knowledge of the interactions between the financial sector and macroeconomic outcomes. Specifically, the effects of financial stability and macroprudential policies are not well understood.

Article

While it is a long-standing idea in international macroeconomic theory that flexible nominal exchange rates have the potential to facilitate adjustment in international relative prices, a monetary union necessarily forgoes this mechanism for facilitating macroeconomic adjustment among its regions. Twenty years of experience in the eurozone monetary union, including the eurozone crisis, have spurred new macroeconomic research on the costs of giving up nominal exchange rates as a tool of adjustment, and the possibility of alternative policies to promote macroeconomic adjustment. Empirical evidence paints a mixed picture regarding the usefulness of nominal exchange rate flexibility: In many historical settings, flexible nominal exchanges rates tend to create more relative price distortions than they have helped resolve; yet, in some contexts exchange rate devaluations can serve as a useful correction to severe relative price misalignments. Theoretical advances in studying open economy models either support the usefulness of exchange rate movements or find them irrelevant, depending on the specific characteristics of the model economy, including the particular specification of nominal rigidities, international openness in goods markets, and international financial integration. Yet in models that embody certain key aspects of the countries suffering the brunt of the eurozone crisis, such as over-borrowing and persistently high wages, it is found that nominal devaluation can be useful to prevent the type of excessive rise in unemployment observed. This theoretical research also raises alternative polices and mechanisms to substitute for nominal exchange rate adjustment. These policies include the standard fiscal tools of optimal currency area theory but also extend to a broader set of tools including import tariffs, export subsidies, and prudential taxes on capital flows. Certain combinations of these policies, labeled a “fiscal devaluation,” have been found in theory to replicate the effects of a currency devaluation in the context of a monetary union such as the eurozone. These theoretical developments are helpful for understanding the history of experiences in the eurozone, such as the eurozone crisis. They are also helpful for thinking about options for preventing such crises in the future.

Article

Randrianalijaona Mahefasoa, Razanakoto Thierry, Salava Julien, Randriamanampisoa Holimalala, and Lazamanana Pierre

Economics is the science of wealth, the main objective of which is to satisfy human needs within the constraint of limited available resources. The production and consumption patterns of economic agents are examined in order to identify the most efficient and optimal ways of meeting needs. At the same time, redistribution problems have an important place in economic science, and they lead to questions of development and economic growth. Since the 1990s, officially declared by the United Nations as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), the relatively frequent occurrence of devastating disasters, induced mainly by natural hazards but also by human activities, development efforts and economic growth have been seriously threatened. Poverty alleviation efforts undertaken by nations in the Global South and supported by international donors, as well as development outcomes worldwide, are suffering from disasters. The international community has become more and more aware of the need to systematically mainstream disaster risk reduction in development policy and strategy. Therefore, disaster risk reduction economics is becoming a priority and part of economics as a science. For more than three decades, based on risk assessment, risk prevention and mitigation strategies, including structural and nonstructural measures, such as but not limited to, risk retention and transfer, preparedness as well as ex-post activities such as response, recovery and reconstruction are using economic variables and tools since mid-2000s to become more efficient. Furthermore, protecting economic growth and development benefits is possible only if enough attention is given to risk science. From this perspective, risk science is becoming part of economics, as evidenced by the new branch called risk reduction economics, which is essential to the attainment of sustainable development goals and resilient societies.

Article

Jeffrey Timmermans

On a fundamental level, financial journalism provides information to individuals that helps them make informed economic choices, and understand how those choices impact their financial situation within the context of the broader political economy. The need for reliable information about prevailing business conditions has been recognized since the dawn of commerce, and since then financial journalism and commerce have developed together in a mostly symbiotic, albeit occasionally combative, relationship for hundreds of years. In its earliest iterations, in the 16th century, financial journalism consisted of little more than the publication of prices of commodities or other goods for sale. As trade and commerce expanded over the following centuries, so did the role and content of financial journalism. The globalization of commerce and increasing integration of the world economy since the late 20th century has increased the importance of financial journalism, while the spread of mass-market investment opportunities and defined-benefit retirement accounts in many countries has expanded the pool of individuals exposed to moves in financial markets, helping to make financial publications among the world’s most-read newspapers and websites. The focus of financial journalism is quite consistent no matter what country or language it is published in: broadly defined, financial journalism encompasses news about financial markets, macroeconomic data and trends, government economic policy, corporate news (especially earnings announcements), personal finance, and commentary about all of the above. However, the often mutualistic relationship between financial journalism and the organizations it covers has led to conflicts of interest, and to a debate over the proper role of a financial press: whether it is to merely disseminate data and information from those organizations, or to serve as a watchdog over them. For example, the bubble in internet-related shares in the 1990s was blamed partly on “boosterism” by the financial media, while many investors also blamed the financial press for failing to sound the alarm ahead of the Global Financial Crisis later in the following decade.

Article

Michael Anthony Lewis

This article will cover basic economic concepts, as well as their relevance to public policy. It defines economics and follows this with discussions of microeconomic concepts, such as market, demand, supply, equilibrium price, and market failure. Next, it takes up discussions of macroeconomic concepts, such as gross domestic product, aggregate demand, inflation, unemployment, fiscal policy, taxes, and free trade. As these economic concepts are discussed, they are related to public policies, such as Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, which all address the provision of benefits for people in need of income and resources.

Article

The indeterminacy school in macroeconomics exploits the fact that macroeconomic models often display multiple equilibria to understand real-world phenomena. There are two distinct phases in the evolution of its history. The first phase began as a research agenda at the University of Pennsylvania in the United States and at CEPREMAP in Paris in the early 1980s. This phase used models of dynamic indeterminacy to explain how shocks to beliefs can temporarily influence economic outcomes. The second phase was developed at the University of California Los Angeles in the 2000s. This phase used models of incomplete factor markets to explain how shocks to beliefs can permanently influence economic outcomes. The first phase of the indeterminacy school has been used to explain volatility in financial markets. The second phase of the indeterminacy school has been used to explain periods of high persistent unemployment. The two phases of the indeterminacy school provide a microeconomic foundation for Keynes’ general theory that does not rely on the assumption that prices and wages are sticky.

Article

Larry Nackerud and Lauren Ricciardelli

This entry addresses unemployment insurance as the cornerstone of the Social Security Act of 1935 and, accordingly, as a cornerstone of the modern U.S. social welfare system. After providing a brief historical background of the Unemployment Insurance program, including key ties to the social work profession, this entry provides information about underlying ideological perspectives, and about program design and implementation. Key considerations are discussed with regard to the impact of the economic downturn and the global COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment insurance using a Keynesian framework. Finally, a discussion is offered pertaining to the legacy and possible reform of the Unemployment Insurance program.

Article

Macroeconomics deals with economics at the aggregate level. This could be at a national level or that of the interaction between nations. Production of output necessarily involves pollution and degrading the environment. Therefore, environmental issues inevitably are a factor. Some problems that have been highlighted in the literature are surveyed here. It has been argued that a poor country deliberately lowers its environmental standards to steal jobs from other countries. What is the theoretical underpinning and the evidence for this assertion? The evidence is very weak in support of this. Moreover, in the fight against climate change, poorer countries claim exemption from tightening their emissions norms because of their poverty. Similarly, although equity demands this, it could pose serious challenges to fighting climate change—oil producers would pump oil faster if they foresaw it becoming useless. A piecemeal approach will not work. A more basic question is how to introduce natural resource use in national income accounts to give meaning to the notion of sustainability. National income accounts do not take into account non-market activities. Some progress has been made in the theory and empirical implementation of sustainability by including non-market activities. A lot of work has been done but a lot more still needs to be done in this area.

Article

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is an interesting alternative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of society’s development. Historically, GDP has been used by policymakers, media analysts, and economists as the main indicator of development, even though economics textbooks often state that it is not a measure of social welfare. Strictly speaking, GDP is only an indicator of the production of economic goods and services, not an index of well-being or development. It does not include the environmental, social, or economic costs of producing goods and services. The theoretical basis of GDP is conventional macroeconomics, which adopts an isolated economic system as the object of analysis. In this approach, there is no flow of matter and energy to produce economic goods and services. The economy is considered a perpetual motion machine that does not need material and energy to produce and which consequently does not generate waste. However, the economy is a subsystem open to the flow of matter and energy, supported by a closed, natural subsystem—the global environmental system. In practice, the production of economic goods and services is dependent on the continuous flow of matter and energy from the environment, and inherently, the result of GDP is also the generation of waste. The GPI adopts this perspective. In the 1990s, Daly and Cobb created the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), hereafter termed GPI. The objective was to incorporate environmental, social, and economic costs associated with GDP growth, and to generate an indicator that reflected a genuine development of society. The GPI has been estimated for several countries, including the United States, Australia, China, and Brazil. This indicator is neither perfect nor complete for assessing development or human well-being, but it is superior to GDP. Despite technological development, there has been an unequivocal increase in environmental degradation, contrary to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The result of environmental degradation has been an increase in the environmental, social, and economic costs of GDP growth. However, these costs have been ignored by policymakers, companies, and society in their production and consumption decisions. Improving the GPI and its estimates can provide better information for decision making by economic and political agents.

Article

Stratification economics, which has emerged as a new subfield of research on inequality, is distinguished by a system-level analysis. It explores the role of power in influencing the processes and institutions that produce hierarchical economic and social orderings based on ascriptive characteristics. Macroeconomic factors play a role in buttressing stratification, especially by race and gender. Among the macroeconomic policy levers that produce and perpetuate intergroup inequality are monetary policy, fiscal expenditures, exchange rate policy, industrial policy, and trade, investment, and financial policies. These policies interact with a stratification “infrastructure,” comprised of racial and gender ideologies, norms, and stereotypes that are internalized at the individual level and act as a “stealth” factor in reproducing hierarchies. In stratified societies, racial and gender norms and stereotypes act to justify various forms of exclusion from prized economic assets such as good jobs. For example, gendered and racial stereotypes contribute to job segregation, with subordinated groups largely sequestered in the secondary labor market where wages are low and jobs are insecure. The net effect is that subordinated groups serve as shock absorbers that insulate members of the dominant group from the impact of negative macroeconomic phenomena such as unemployment and economic volatility. Further, racial and gender inequality have economy-wide effects, and play a role in determining the rate of economic growth and overall performance of an economy. The impact of intergroup inequality on macro-level outcomes depends on a country’s economic structure. While under some conditions, intergroup inequality acts as a stimulus to economic growth, under other conditions, it undermines societal well-being. Countries are not locked into a path whereby inequality has a positive or negative effect on growth. Rather, through their policy decisions, countries can choose the low road (stratification) or the high road (intergroup inequality). Thus, even if intergroup inequality has been a stimulus to growth in the past, it is possible to choose an equity-led growth path.

Article

First utilized in Latin America in response to the mid-20th-century decline of populist economic policymaking in the region, modern neoclassical theory, or neoliberalism, can be generally defined as a market-oriented form of economy policymaking that seeks to decentralize state authority and redefine state administrative responsibilities through deregulation, privatization, and the creation of common markets. Based on principles of classical 19th-century economic liberalism, the economic and political framework of neoliberalism advocates for a dramatically limited role for the state, which should only act to maintain the integrity of contract law and private property as a means of supporting the market. In the absence of state intervention, neoliberalism in Latin America alternatively emphasized the role of multilateral organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Agency for International Development in bringing financial stability and growth to the region through the manipulation of interest rates, the devaluation of exchange rates, and the establishment of free-market pricing of goods. Ultimately, the widespread implementation of neoliberal reforms through the 1980s and 1990s ushered in a new era of transnational economic policymaking that had long-term, mixed results for the environmental, political, and social landscape of Latin America.

Article

George W. Evans and Bruce McGough

While rational expectations (RE) remains the benchmark paradigm in macro-economic modeling, bounded rationality, especially in the form of adaptive learning, has become a mainstream alternative. Under the adaptive learning (AL) approach, economic agents in dynamic, stochastic environments are modeled as adaptive learners forming expectations and making decisions based on forecasting rules that are updated in real time as new data become available. Their decisions are then coordinated each period via the economy’s markets and other relevant institutional architecture, resulting in a time-path of economic aggregates. In this way, the AL approach introduces additional dynamics into the model—dynamics that can be used to address myriad macroeconomic issues and concerns, including, for example, empirical fit and the plausibility of specific rational expectations equilibria. AL can be implemented as reduced-form learning, that is, the implementation of learning at the aggregate level, or alternatively, as discussed in a companion contribution to this Encyclopedia, Evans and McGough, as agent-level learning, which includes pre-aggregation analysis of boundedly rational decision making. Typically learning agents are assumed to use estimated linear forecast models, and a central formulation of AL is least-squares learning in which agents recursively update their estimated model as new data become available. Key questions include whether AL will converge over time to a specified RE equilibrium (REE), in which cases we say the REE is stable under AL; in this case, it is also of interest to examine what type of learning dynamics are observed en route. When multiple REE exist, stability under AL can act as a selection criterion, and global dynamics can involve switching between local basins of attraction. In models with indeterminacy, AL can be used to assess whether agents can learn to coordinate their expectations on sunspots. The key analytical concepts and tools are the E-stability principle together with the E-stability differential equations, and the theory of stochastic recursive algorithms (SRA). While, in general, analysis of SRAs is quite technical, application of the E-stability principle is often straightforward. In addition to equilibrium analysis in macroeconomic models, AL has many applications. In particular, AL has strong implications for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy, has been used to explain asset price dynamics, has been shown to improve the fit of estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and has been proven useful in explaining experimental outcomes.

Article

The international mobility of people and migration flows are critically influenced by differences in per capita incomes, real wages, job opportunities, institutional capacities and living standards across nations and cities. Its dynamics are shaped by social networks and regulated by the migration policies of receiving countries. International migration represents around 3.3% of world’s population; up from 2.7% in 1995. It is composed mainly of working-age people, with men and women migrants being in roughly equal numbers. Historically, the globalization process of the late 19th and early 20th centuries was also accompanied by large migration flows, mostly, from the “Old World” (Europe) to the “New World” (United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, and other countries in the Global South). Starting in the 1980s migration has increased relative to a rise in total population, although the share of international migration to total population was, on average, higher in the first wave of globalization of the 1870–1914 period. Main substantive topics and new themes in the field of international migration include: (a) the motivations and determinants of the international mobility of the wealthy (High-Net Worth Individuals, HNWIs), a largely unexplored topic in the literature of international migration; (b) the international migration of talent (high-skills, educated, and gifted people), (c) the linkages between the mobility of talent and the mobility of capital and their evolution over time affected by macro regimes and international conditions, (d) The relation between macroeconomic and financial crises (e.g., the 2008–2009 crisis), stagnation traps and immigration flows, (e) the influence of international migration on inequality within and between countries, and (f) forced migration, displaced population and humanitarian crises, following war, violence, persecution, and human rights violations.