This chapter analyzes the impacts of climate change on flood factors and extent of associated damages in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. HK mountains system is located in the west of the Himalayas and Karakorum. It is the greatest watershed of the River Kabul, River Chitral, River Panjkora, and River Swat in the eastern Hindu Kush and River Amu in western Hindu Kush. The Hindu Kush system hosts numerous glaciers, snow-clad mountains, and fertile river valleys; it also supports large populations and provides year-round water to recharge streams and rivers. The study region is vulnerable to a wide range of hazards including floods, earthquakes, landslides, desertification, and drought. Flash floods and riverine floods are the deadliest extreme hydro-meteorological events. The upper reaches experience characteristics of flash flooding, whereas the lower reach is where river floods occur. Flash floods are more destructive and sudden. Almost every year in summer, monsoonal rainfall and high temperature join hands with heavy melting of glaciers and snow accelerating discharge in the river system. In the face of climate change, a significant correlation between rainfall patterns, trends in temperature, and resultant peaks in river discharge have been recorded. A rising trend was found in temperature, which leads to early and rapid melting of glaciers and snow in the headwater region. The analysis reveals that during the past three decades, radical changes in the behavior of numerous valley glaciers have been noted. In addition, the spatial and temporal scales of violent weather events have been growing, since the 1980s. Such changes in water regimes including the frequent but substantial increase in heavy precipitation events and rapid melting of snow in the headwater region, siltation in active channels, excessive deforestation, and human encroachments onto the active flood channel have further escalated the flooding events. The HK region is beyond the reach of existing weather RADAR network, and hence forecasting and early warning is ineffective. Here, almost every year, the floods cause damages to infrastructure, scarce farmland, and sources of livelihood.
Atta-ur Rahman, Shakeel Mahmood, Mohammad Dawood, Ghani Rahman, and Fang Chen
Christopher B. Mayhorn and Michael S. Wogalter
Warnings are risk communication messages that can appear in a variety of situations within the healthcare context. Potential target audiences for warnings can be very diverse and may include health professionals such as physicians or nurses as well as members of the public. In general, warnings serve three distinct purposes. First, warnings are used to improve health and safety by reducing the likelihood of events that might result in personal injury, disease, death, or property damage. Second, they are used to communicate important safety-related information. In general, warnings likely to be effective should include a description of the hazard, instructions on how to avoid the hazard, and an indication of the severity of consequences that might occur as a result of not complying with the warning. Third, warnings are used to promote safe behavior and reduce unsafe behavior. Various regulatory agencies within the United States and around the globe may take an active role in determining the content and formatting of warnings. The Communication-Human Information Processing (C-HIP) model was developed to describe the processes involved in how people interact with warnings and other information. This framework employs the basic stages of a simple communication model such that a warning message is sent from one entity (source) through some channel(s) to another (receiver). Once warning information is delivered to the receiver, processing may be initiated, and if not impeded, will continue through several stages including attention switch, attention maintenance, comprehension and memory, beliefs and attitudes, and motivation, possibly ending in compliance behavior. Examples of health-related warnings are presented to illustrate concepts. Methods for developing and evaluating warnings such as heuristic evaluation, iterative design and testing, comprehension, and response times are described.